AA vs suited conector

    • bonecore
      bonecore
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.11.2009 Posts: 1,057
      I know this guy has AA or KK
      he is in early position and he very rarely raises preflop and i know his style ...

      he raised to 5 big blinds and i was last to act on Big blind
      i folded 89s but i think i could have won a big pot of him knowing what he likely has in hand

      ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      later ,another hand - same guy
      he is in MP (raises to 5bb and i am positive he has at least QQ+ ... as he limps AK)
      there is a caller on CO (this guy is a nitt so i put him on a pocket pair or AQ maybe)
      and i call from SB with 65s
      obviously the idea is to win at showdown... (not to bluff him out of AA)


      my hand is 65s
      Question 1..................
      please tell me in this exact spot if my calculations are correct????????
      % to flop a draw = 6%
      % to be ahead on turn = 7.5%

      Question 2....................
      what is the general rule in this spot
  • 4 replies
    • Wurble
      Wurble
      Silver
      Joined: 04.04.2009 Posts: 456
      Originally posted by bonecore
      I know this guy has AA or KK
      he is in early position and he very rarely raises preflop and i know his style ...

      he raised to 5 big blinds and i was last to act on Big blind
      i folded 89s but i think i could have won a big pot of him knowing what he likely has in hand

      ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      later ,another hand - same guy
      he is in MP (raises to 5bb and i am positive he has at least QQ+ ... as he limps AK)
      there is a caller on CO (this guy is a nitt so i put him on a pocket pair or AQ maybe)
      and i call from SB with 65s
      obviously the idea is to win at showdown... (not to bluff him out of AA)


      my hand is 65s
      Question 1..................
      please tell me in this exact spot if my calculations are correct????????
      % to flop a draw = 6%
      % to be ahead on turn = 7.5%

      Question 2....................
      what is the general rule in this spot
      Basically, follow the call20 rule if you think you can win a stack the times you hit your hand. The problem is that most nits won't stack off on a drawy board so that probably counts your flushes out and you have reverse implied odds if villain draws to a backdoor nut flush against your 6 high flush or whatever.

      Just because technically you have the implied odds to call doesn't mean it's good - It should be villain dependant, the only time this is good is when you have the correct implied odds + an absolute certainty that villain is spewing a full stack with his overpair no matter what the board texture.

      Sorry, I should add... calling here from the sb is pretty bad - If ever you think about calling with suited connectors against a big hand you need position. Maybe if the pot is 4 way or something and you're getting huge implieds with some fish in the hand it might be ok.
    • sapheal
      sapheal
      Global
      Joined: 23.02.2008 Posts: 1,015
      bonecore

      Indeed, a great question. If your opponent raises 5x preflop, then your implied odds with speculative hands decrease drastically. It is best to fold the hand, unless its multiway flop. Even if its multiway flop its often good to fold the hand preflop to this sizing if you're out of position or if your opponents are good so that you're not going to get paid when you hit your hand.

      I haven't gone through your calculations though yet. The rule of thumb is, though, that if you hit your draw you need to be able to play it profitably and this is not an easy job.


      Cheers,
      Michal
    • Grokken
      Grokken
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.03.2011 Posts: 30
      Originally posted by sapheal
      bonecore

      Indeed, a great question. If your opponent raises 5x preflop, then your implied odds with speculative hands decrease drastically. It is best to fold the hand, unless its multiway flop. Even if its multiway flop its often good to fold the hand preflop to this sizing if you're out of position or if your opponents are good so that you're not going to get paid when you hit your hand.

      I haven't gone through your calculations though yet. The rule of thumb is, though, that if you hit your draw you need to be able to play it profitably and this is not an easy job.


      Cheers,
      Michal
      Wouldn't a 5x open raise also indicate a stronger hand from villian, which would give us better implied odds? I understand that the pot odds are worse, but I think it would be easier to stack off a villain raising 5BB from UTG than lets say a 3BB raise from the CO.
    • MatejM47
      MatejM47
      Black
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,193
      Originally posted by Grokken
      Originally posted by sapheal
      bonecore

      Indeed, a great question. If your opponent raises 5x preflop, then your implied odds with speculative hands decrease drastically. It is best to fold the hand, unless its multiway flop. Even if its multiway flop its often good to fold the hand preflop to this sizing if you're out of position or if your opponents are good so that you're not going to get paid when you hit your hand.

      I haven't gone through your calculations though yet. The rule of thumb is, though, that if you hit your draw you need to be able to play it profitably and this is not an easy job.


      Cheers,
      Michal
      Wouldn't a 5x open raise also indicate a stronger hand from villian, which would give us better implied odds? I understand that the pot odds are worse, but I think it would be easier to stack off a villain raising 5BB from UTG than lets say a 3BB raise from the CO.
      The problem you wont flop a flush nearly often enough. Then what line are you going to take when you flop a FD?

      Lead 3-bet is the best option but if he never folds an overpair your FE is to low and you just get it in with 33% equity most of the time.

      Check raise is also out of the question if you never expect him to fold his overpair. Basically any agressive action with your draws requires some FE.

      Check calling also sucks since what do you do if you hit your flush on turn? His very likely to check back now considering his a nit so you have to donk out which really turns your hand face up and once you get called he still hase 15% suck out equity.

      Basically you got no good options with 56s against this player type oop. Your basically hoping for some 2 pair or strait which case your getting paid by his overpair for sure. But with the flush or trips he might find a fold with his AA so your implied might be way lower then you think.

      And you will lose a lot of money just folding the flop or check calling with some weaker draws thats definitly -EV.