[NL2-NL10] AKs vs. tight opponent, MSS NL4

    • JohnDoe1313
      JohnDoe1313
      Platinum
      Joined: 04.01.2011 Posts: 5,144
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      SB:
      $4,26
      Hero:
      $1,7

      0,02/0,04 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy.com Elephant 0.102 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A:diamond: , K:diamond:
      UTG2 folds, Hero raises to $0,16, 4 folds, SB raises to $0,48, BB folds, Hero raises to $1,70 (All-In), SB calls $1,22.

      Flop: ($3,44) J:club: , 8:heart: , 3:spade:
      Turn: ($3,44) 9:spade:
      River: ($3,44) 9:diamond: (2 players)


      Final Pot: $3,44

      Results follow (highlight to see):
      Hero shows (Ad Kd)
      SB shows two-pair, kings and nines (Ks Kc)

      SB wins with two-pair, kings and nines (Ks Kc)

      Sup.

      My opponent was tight, put him on QQ+, AK, maybe JJ. I was thinking about folding AKs pre even though SHC says to shove, but then I asked myself what am I playing? Just aces?

      While reviewing I tried to do a little of math. Against his range QQ+, AK my equity is 41,90%. I considered he never folds after I shove, so with EV=0 my equity has to be 44,76% if my calculations are right.

      So is it fine to fold? This is a very fishy question, I know. Thank you
  • 3 replies
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Hey,

      The pot odds you get are 1.86:1.54 so roughly 1.59:1 = 40%

      However I think your AKs is too good to fold + you still get have some FEQ in case he is bluff3betting. It's not much but it adds up in your EV math wise

      I give him TT+ or JJ+ with AK so you are fine

      Best regards,
      Gerv
    • AKM247
      AKM247
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.05.2010 Posts: 412
      Hey Gerv,

      Excuse the ignorance but could you please explain the figure for pot odds you gave in your calculations - where do the 1.86 & 1.54 come from please? In fact if you could just break down the whole equation I would appreciate it - soz for asking feel like a bit of a mong tbh

      Thanks,

      AKM
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Well it is your stack + the blinds + your openraise versus [your effective stack MINUS your openraise]

      If it is not clear I advice you to restudy the pot odds article

      - Gerv