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[NL2-NL10] NL2 calling all in on flush draw+gut

    • oribken
      Joined: 15.05.2011 Posts: 29
      Full Tilt Poker $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 1350264
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      UTG: $2.00
      Hero (UTG+1): $2.30
      MP1: $1.90
      MP2: $1.30
      CO: $2.00
      BTN: $2.00
      SB: $1.30
      BB: $2.77

      CO posts a big blind ($0.02)

      Pre Flop: ($0.05) Hero is UTG+1 with K :club: T :club:
      1 fold, Hero raises to $0.06, 1 fold, MP2 raises to $0.23, 4 folds, Hero calls $0.17

      Flop: ($0.51) 4 :spade: A :club: Q :club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.35, MP2 raises to $1.07 all in, Hero calls $0.72

      Turn: ($2.65) 8 :spade: (2 players - 1 is all in)

      River: ($2.65) 2 :heart: (2 players - 1 is all in)

      Was this the correct move? I honestly felt the guy doing the all in was one of the loser and weaker players on the table. But not by much. He isn't multitabling like most people so i thought he could have been just bored at the table.
  • 4 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      hi oribken,

      Best play is just to b/f pf, since KTs isn´t really ahead his 3-betting range
      Postflop I think both plays are fine, either c/rai or b/c
    • l33tNinja
      Joined: 15.08.2011 Posts: 9
      First post. I'll make an introduction post or blog at some point in time about my foray into uNL (played Limit back in '03).

      On the flop. if you're calling all-in, that's 0.72 to win 2.65 (27.1% of the pot including your call) or 1-to-2.86

      You have:
      9 outs to make the nut flush
      4 outs to make your nut inside straight draw (one of which, gives you a royal flush)

      There is no possibility for your opponent to have an open-ended straight draw and any flush draw he holds will be weaker than your flush draw.

      So these are 13 strong outs. That gives you a probability of 48.10% (1.08 : 1) for spiking your monster.

      1:2.83 < 1:1.08, therefore call the all-in flop raise.

      Is my thinking correct?
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      hi l33tNinja,

      Is my thinking correct?
      - yes

      Hero gets too good pot odds to fold against flop c/rai as strong hand as royal draw
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello oribken,

      Preflop: Fold the hand preflop. ;) It's not the greatest hand to play that kind of hand in FR. Don't raise them. You mostly will be playing OOP. As played fold to the 3bet, what kind of range do you beat here which 3bets?
      If you are against a strong range then you are far-far behind:

             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    27.94%  27.52%   0.42% { KcTc }
      UTG+1  72.06%  71.63%   0.42% { TT+, AKs, AKo }

      As played
      Postflop: Yeah, l33tNinja math calculations, they are correct but now again we can't count all the outs are very clean outs. Why? Just for the reason that he might have a set which means with runner-runner or even with one card he could catch either QUADs or FH. Although now again our equity needed as you wrote is totally correct and for that reason we can go broke here. But now again I wouldn't donk myself, rather just Check/Shove. Equity we get against made hands:

      Board: 4:spade: A:club: Q:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    41.66%  41.49%   0.17% { KcTc }
      UTG+1  58.34%  58.17%   0.17% { AA, QQ, AQs+, AQo+ }

      Best regards.