[NL20-NL50] NL25SH - midset on FD board and A river

    • luizsilveira
      Joined: 27.11.2010 Posts: 2,320
      Howdy ho.

      Small sample on villain (126 hands) but he's playing 23/17. Cbet on flop 83%, went to showdown 36.

      My concerns are mostly betsizing I think. Raise bigger OTF? I think if he's calling, he's calling anyway a 3.5 raise, maybe even 3.75. Then on the river could I consider betting less? I mean, I had a smaller stack than pot, so betting less there (like $10 or so) would show even more strength, no?

      Usually I would bet even less, like $7 on this spot, to still get called by Jx and QQ/KK type of hands. But I have been receiving lots of criticism on river bet sizing so I decided to shove this one even with the ace, since my turn bet was intended to leave me with ~pot size stack OTR. I think if river was a blank shoving was much better; however, with the A hitting there are quite a few hands that would pay me off and will not any more.

      PartyGaming - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

      MP: $45.69
      CO: $22.40
      BTN: $51.10
      SB: $25.00
      Hero (BB): $27.06
      UTG: $34.91

      SB posts SB $0.10, Hero posts BB $0.25

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has 5:spade: 5:diamond:

      fold, MP raises to $0.75, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.50

      Flop: ($1.60, 2 players) 2:club: J:heart: 5:heart:
      Hero checks, MP bets $1.00, Hero raises to $3.00, MP calls $2.00

      Turn: ($7.60, 2 players) 7:club:
      Hero bets $5.75, MP calls $5.75

      River: ($19.10, 2 players) A:spade:
      Hero bets $17.56 and is all-in, fold

      Hero wins $18.15

  • 2 replies
    • DeMarcohsp
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      Yep his hand looks a lot like Jx or KK/QQ so no need to shove river. The only thing that you can expect to pay you off on the river vs a shove is A :heart: X :heart: and I don't think those are that big a percent of his range.

      I would bet~ 9-11 on the river and expect to get called by a large percent of his range. We can also bet like 5 hoping to induce a bluff range by his missed flush draws and also to be sure we get called by his Jx but because of his high WTSD he looks more passivish so I would still bet 9 on the river.
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      If river was blank then I like shove, since then you would likely get called a lot more Jx, QQ/KK, but likely now you only get called AJ+ so I think I like betting river smaller to 8-9$
      Flop and turn bet sizes are fine. You´re leaving yourself nice amount that you can shove river