[NL20-NL50] Kk Nl25 Fr

    • muel294
      muel294
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2009 Posts: 1,207
      I am spewing huge amounts of money in these spots, need help!

      Viallain was a TAG reg playing 12/6/2/33/404 hands

      Full Tilt - $0.25 NL - Holdem - 7 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      UTG: $38.13
      UTG+1: $25.35
      MP: $11.76
      Hero (CO): $38.41
      BTN: $25.00
      SB: $9.37
      BB: $34.17

      SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has K:diamond: K:spade:

      UTG raises to $0.50, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.50, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls $1.00

      Flop: ($3.35, 2 players) 7:club: 2:spade: 6:spade:
      UTG checks, Hero bets $2.51, UTG raises to $6.00, Hero calls $3.49

      Turn: ($15.35, 2 players) 5:diamond:
      UTG bets $12.00, Hero calls $12.00

      River: ($39.35, 2 players) 8:club:
      UTG bets $18.63 and is all-in, Hero calls $18.63

      UTG shows 6:diamond: 6:heart: (Three of a Kind, Sixes)
      Hero mucks K:diamond: K:spade: (One Pair, Kings)
      UTG wins $73.61
  • 6 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I think you have to fold turn, since I don´t see 12/6 c/r flop and betting that big on the turn with overpairs and likely he has there set
      If you were 100bb deep then I like stacking off a lot more
    • VTomukas
      VTomukas
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.12.2007 Posts: 251
      To be fair, 12/6 nits are never raising a draw there. Actually they would almost never have a draw there. A:spade: K:spade: is not possible because of Hero having a K:spade: there, and I don't believe That 12/6 nit would open/call 3bet A:spade: Q:spade: from UTG. No other draws are possible, so it is very clear bet/fold flop, I don't see any reason to call a flop raise against such a player - at least while we will clearly see he's adjusting. Since usually they play lots of tables, adjusting is not very fast thing for them too :)

      Board: 7c 6s 2s
      Dead:

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 17.010% 17.01% 00.00% 1684 0.00 { KdKs }
      Hand 1: 82.990% 82.99% 00.00% 8216 0.00 { 77-66, 22, AsQs }

      One more - 12/6 is no way a TAG :) It's nit...

      P.S. Only now I've seen this is FR stats, even the table is only 7-handed now. So it might change a bit, but not a lot... Also I don't think villain would even Raise/call and c/raise flop for valeu with hands like JJ. So his range remains pretty much the same.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by VTomukas
      To be fair, 12/6 nits are never raising a draw there. Actually they would almost never have a draw there. A:spade: K:spade: is not possible because of Hero having a K:spade: there, and I don't believe That 12/6 nit would open/call 3bet A:spade: Q:spade: from UTG. No other draws are possible, so it is very clear bet/fold flop, I don't see any reason to call a flop raise against such a player - at least while we will clearly see he's adjusting. Since usually they play lots of tables, adjusting is not very fast thing for them too :)

      Board: 7c 6s 2s
      Dead:

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 17.010% 17.01% 00.00% 1684 0.00 { KdKs }
      Hand 1: 82.990% 82.99% 00.00% 8216 0.00 { 77-66, 22, AsQs }

      One more - 12/6 is no way a TAG :) It's nit...

      P.S. Only now I've seen this is FR stats, even the table is only 7-handed now. So it might change a bit, but not a lot... Also I don't think villain would even Raise/call and c/raise flop for valeu with hands like JJ. So his range remains pretty much the same.
      problem is if he decides to take stab on the pot with his overpairs rather than c/c then b/f flop would be quite big mistake, that´s why I would like at least call on the flop and then consider giving up on the turn. Also if he b/c pf pp-s, then he would very likely b/c with all kind of suited stuff that hero is ahead on the flop
    • VTomukas
      VTomukas
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.12.2007 Posts: 251
      Originally posted by Kaitz20

      problem is if he decides to take stab on the pot with his overpairs rather than c/c then b/f flop would be quite big mistake
      Yep, that's totally right :) I just think, that most of nits like this type won't ever raise an overpair there. The only case is slowplayed KK/AA. They just play too many tables and don't have a time for think, they usually have an "autopilot" function playing - especially because of his total AF is only 2 - while only playing 12/6 p/f it's quite passive. So even if we don't have his c/raise flop stats - I assume that if I don't have a concrete information, this type of player will never raise a worse hand there... Well QQ is on the edge for that - it may be possible. But raise size, calling a 3bet, and c/raising the flop for me lowers his range to 66-77...
    • muel294
      muel294
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2009 Posts: 1,207
      In hindsight his set is quite transparent. If i give up on the flop I think I am folding the best hand far too often. Against these kind of stats though i might just give up on the flop in future.

      I remember checking his flop check raise % during the hand and it being 0.

      If villain was something like 20/18/5/30 we are more likely to get it in here? although by the river I can only expect to be ahead of 33 TT-QQ and we expect draws to jam the turn anyway and any medium strength hands to check turn and river?
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by muel294
      In hindsight his set is quite transparent. If i give up on the flop I think I am folding the best hand far too often. Against these kind of stats though i might just give up on the flop in future.

      I remember checking his flop check raise % during the hand and it being 0.

      If villain was something like 20/18/5/30 we are more likely to get it in here? although by the river I can only expect to be ahead of 33 TT-QQ and we expect draws to jam the turn anyway and any medium strength hands to check turn and river?
      not really sure he would play 33 or TT that way, so I think you may be ahead only missed draws and sometimes QQ