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Aa

    • diversfx
      diversfx
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.12.2010 Posts: 627
      This might belong in another forum. But what are the odds of the same player getting aa 5 times in 130 hands.
      If my numbers are right you should get a pocket pr 1;17 and aces 1;200 or something like that.
  • 4 replies
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      If you decide on the set of 130 hands ahead of time, you get a different number than if you ask what the probability that you will get AA 5 times in some 130 hands, since there are many different opportunities for streaks.

      The chance that there will be 5 AA hands within a particular 130 is (130 choose 5) (1/221)^5 (220/221)^125 = 0.000308 or about 1/3247. The chance to get 5 or more is about 1/2944.

      You can estimate this type of probability using a Poisson distribution. If there are a large number of independent events which each have a low probability, and the average number of occurrences is L, then the probability there are k found is L^k/k! exp(-L). L=130/221 so this approximation is 1/3068 here, about 6% away from the actual value.

      Again, since in a set of 10k hands there are many disjoint sequences of 130 hands, the chance that you will see 5 AA hands in some set of 130 is much higher, at least by a factor of [10k/130]. How much higher actually seems like an interesting mathematical problem.
    • diversfx
      diversfx
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.12.2010 Posts: 627
      Ok you lost me lol, lets say if I were to play 130 and only 130 hands what are the odds of getting AA 5 times. Or any pocket pr for that matter as I was a 22 magnet today.
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      The chance to get exactly 5 AA hands is 0.000308 or about 1/3247.
    • akrammon
      akrammon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.05.2009 Posts: 3,142
      We got some precise mathematics from the mathematician :f_biggrin: I actually think that those calculations are pretty interesting, just need to put in some thought to understand them ;)