[NL2-NL10] NL10 - MSS, JJ in BB, squeeze and ugly spot

    • BadeaCelRau
      Joined: 15.10.2010 Posts: 2,122
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)

      Known players:
      SB (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is SB with J, J.
      UTG2 raises to $0.30, 3 folds, CO calls $0.30, BU folds, Hero raises to $1.20, BB folds, UTG2 calls $0.90, CO calls $0.90.

      Flop: ($3.7) 8, 6, 7 (3 players)
      Hero checks, UTG2 checks, CO checks.

      Turn: ($3.7) T (3 players)
      Hero checks, UTG2 bets $1.20, CO folds, Hero calls $1.20.

      River: ($6.1) Q (2 players)
      Hero checks, UTG2 checks.

      Final Pot: $6.1.

      Results follow:

      UTG2 shows a pair of queens(Qd Ah).
      Hero shows a pair of jacks(Jc Jh).

      UTG2 wins with a pair of queens(Qd Ah).

      UTG2 stats in 2707 hands :
      72(cbet)/53(f cbet)/41(f 2nd)/24(wtsd)/3.2 (af)

      UTG2 is a pretty good winning player but he opens too many hands from UTG. When he opens x2 it's a sure fold to 3bet, when he opens 3x it's probable that he will fold.

      CO stats in 417 hands :
      18(vpip)/4(pfr)/1(3b)/25(f 3b)/9(steal)
      14(cbet)/75(f cbet)/50(f 2nd)/36(wtsd)/0.9(af)
      call open 5%

      CO is super tight nit, and I think he's mostly calling poket pairs for set mining (pocket pairs 22-JJ are about 4.5% from the total hands), although I don't remember seeing him going to showdown.

      Since I wasn't up against 2 fishes I tried to skip a cbet and see what CO does first, if he bets big I'm sure he hit his set. Everybody checks and on the turn another super ugly card comes, now there are two more pocket pairs that hit (99 and TT) so I check again :/. UTG2 bets small and CO folds, I think he tries to steal this cheaply so I just call, I think I should have pushed in this spot.
      On the river any flushdraw completes and an overcard comes. I think I could bluff here but there's a possibility that UTG has a spade :/

      How would you play this?
  • 2 replies
    • burek2000
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Hey Badea,

      CO 18/4 nit? =)

      They both look very loose and CO is rather fishy with such low AF. Furthermore, if he plays 18/4 he does call much more than just PPs for setvalue and most likely his cold call is higher than 5% longterm.

      On the flop, you can't afford to give away a free card thus you have to shove all-in because there are many overcards and 1 card FDs in their ranges you have to protect against. Alternative would be to c/f your hand, but that would be definitely too weak and a waste of value.

      Best regards,
    • BadeaCelRau
      Joined: 15.10.2010 Posts: 2,122
      Umm, I think there's a possibility that he plays 14/4 and not 18/4 and I misscopied the stats :D . Even with 14 vpip I think you're right, his call-call line doesn't make much sense. I should have pushed :(