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[NL2-NL10] NL10 river decision in 3bet pot

    • Torg0th
      Joined: 26.03.2010 Posts: 56
      Full Tilt - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      UTG: $11.15
      MP: $10.20
      CO: $13.64
      BTN: $13.22
      Hero (SB): $13.44
      BB: $11.05

      Hero posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has J:heart: J:diamond:

      fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $0.35, Hero raises to $1.10, fold, BTN calls $0.75

      Flop: ($2.30, 2 players) 8:diamond: T:spade: T:club:
      Hero checks, BTN checks

      Turn: ($2.30, 2 players) 3:diamond:
      Hero checks, BTN bets $1.80, Hero calls $1.80

      River: ($5.90, 2 players) K:diamond:
      Hero checks, BTN bets $10.32 and is all-in, fold

      Villain had tagish stats and had around 65 AFq. Normally I would never consider calling but the guy snap shoved as soon as the K came up which I interpreted as weakness. He had around 80% fold to 3bet if I remember correctly (not large sample though). I didn't bet flop and turn because I thought there weren't a lot of draws in his range and I can't extract value from much worse, so seeing as he seemed really aggro I was just gonna call down.
  • 2 replies
    • DaPhunk
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      If he's really aggro why don't you try getting some value out of letting him "float" you?

      That river card is not just a K its also a :diamond: . He can conceivably have rivered the flush as well and semi-bluffed it on turn. His hand to me looks like A :diamond: Q :diamond: or something similar, or KK, that want's to get value out of any AA, QQ, JJ, Tx or AK in your range. (Occasionally there will be other FH's in his range too, and very rarely Bluffs)

      65% Agression Frequency doesn't mean he actually bluffs THAT much, depending on your sample size. It can mean he plays his draws and made hands very strongly as well. Take a look at Your own AFq and your cbet percentage, 65% still seem high?
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Torg0th,

      I'd actually still CBet the flop. Our hand ain't that strong and with Check we just wont find out where we stand and will likely face such a spot as on river while he could easily even bluff us out.

      Just bet it and try to protect from overcards and maybe even get value from some weaker PPs/pairs.

      But as played I guess hard to Call without knowing good the opponent.

      Best regards.