Bankroll and Downswings

    • ManniXXX
      ManniXXX
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.09.2007 Posts: 707
      Here's a small thought. PS advises 50 buyins for any given limit right? But we know swings of 20 and 30 buyins will and do happen. So if you just made 50 buyins for your next level should you really be moving up with the chance of a downswing that could force you back down a limit? WHat are the actual risks for a downswing to happen? Any general odds out there? I've played almost 400 games at my limit and I've had one major downswing which happened at about 115 games.

      Discussion? How often do you have downswings? How severe are they? Do you stick to the 50 BI BRM or do you try to have some extra in reserve?
  • 23 replies
    • chenny8888
      chenny8888
      Silver
      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324
      move down once you hit 40 BI, imo. and of course size of downswings depend on player skills, and turbo/regular

    • ccookie
      ccookie
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.12.2007 Posts: 68
      "50 BI" - You mean SSS of course?

      You sound cautious / disciplined enough to move up when you reach 50 BI. (The discipline is in ability to move back if you lose a certain amount). As chenny suggested, move down when you hit 40 BI, or set even more conservative stop-loss limit - allocate 6 BI to lose, or even 3.

      The only reason not try the new limit is if you are not certain you can psychologically accept returning to lower limit.
    • chenny8888
      chenny8888
      Silver
      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324
      no, we mean single table sit and gos (I HOPE!)
    • helemaalnicks
      helemaalnicks
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.09.2007 Posts: 7,195
      Originally posted by chenny8888
      move down once you hit 40 BI, imo. and of course size of downswings depend on player skills, and turbo/regular

      no, youre just a luckbox :p. I move down with less then 100 BI's.
    • fermion314
      fermion314
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2007 Posts: 240
      Originally posted by chenny8888
      move down once you hit 40 BI, imo. and of course size of downswings depend on player skills, and turbo/regular

      Wow, great evolution! Btw, what software did you use to generate the graph?
    • ManniXXX
      ManniXXX
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.09.2007 Posts: 707
      Nice graph chenny :) What limit do you play?

      100 buyins for nick at his limit is understandable. Think it's wise to gradually increase your BIs as you move up the limits or is it more of a binary situation? As in you reach a certain limit and suddenly need more BIs for effective BRM?

      Good stuff thanks guys.
    • Unam
      Unam
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 17.08.2006 Posts: 8,999
      Originally posted by chenny8888
      move down once you hit 40 BI, imo. and of course size of downswings depend on player skills, and turbo/regular

      I can't see any swings. ?(
    • chenny8888
      chenny8888
      Silver
      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324
      2 month breakeven swing
    • ManniXXX
      ManniXXX
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.09.2007 Posts: 707
      Originally posted by chenny8888
      2 month breakeven swing
      Surely a swing needs a direction?
    • chenny8888
      chenny8888
      Silver
      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324
      sure. i am really really good at poker so my expected ROI is something like 120%, and my results are closer to 0%.

      so downswing.

      ;)
    • DrFunk
      DrFunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.01.2008 Posts: 348
      120% ROI?!?! Well...good luck. :)
    • helemaalnicks
      helemaalnicks
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.09.2007 Posts: 7,195
      Originally posted by DrFunk
      120% ROI?!?! Well...good luck. :)
      you dont need luck if your ROI is 120
    • roshe40
      roshe40
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.03.2008 Posts: 42
      From what I have read on the subject, bankroll swings should be much smaller playing SNGs as opposed to cash games. I have only played about 80 SNGs so far, so I cannot provide an accurate long term example in my case of a downswing, but I'm sure I will see one eventually. I have only twice thus far gone 4 straight SNGs without cashing (I have yet to attempt multitabling btw) and on both of those occasions followed those drops with a 1st place finish in the next one, effectively neutralizing those two mini drops. I am sure that I will encounter longer droughts when I move up beyond the $10+$1 level I am presently playing. The +EV is pretty good at this stake, but the ROI is still pretty low. I look at it as I am at least earning while I am learning.

      I am getting close to affording the $20+$2s soon, but I would prefer to have at least 60 buyins in my bankroll before making the move to the $20s, $30s, and $50s. That way I can have a little more chance of being able to stay at a new level and learn to beat it while dealing with the inevitable downswings.
    • chenny8888
      chenny8888
      Silver
      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324
      no SNG is much much more swingy than cash...
    • roshe40
      roshe40
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.03.2008 Posts: 42
      I find the direct opposite to be the case. If you lose a few SNGs, one win gets them all back. It is much harder to recover those losses as quickly in cash games. I had swings of hundreds of $ in $25 max buyin cash games and I have yet to have even a single downswing of more than 3 buyins in 80 SNGs so far, and I am playing the $20+$2s now.
    • chenny8888
      chenny8888
      Silver
      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324
      lol, well... gl keeping that record up

      you will really need it (sry but it's so true :( )

      ask any 1000+samplesize player
    • roshe40
      roshe40
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.03.2008 Posts: 42
      I am assuming those players that playing 1000 SNGs are multitabling. That WILL greatly increase your fluctuation due to the high quantity of tables causing a poor quality of play. I only play 4 or 5 SNGs a night and I cash in at least 3 of those every night. I have around 50 cashes out of 80 so far. It may take me alot longer to play 1000 SNGs, but with careful attention to each and every one, I fully intend to cash in 600 out of those 1000. Quality is underrated!!!
    • chenny8888
      chenny8888
      Silver
      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324
      meh; i played 4 at a time and i don't think i missed out on any reads, etc. i think i played pretty optimally.

      my stats from startracker:

      Turbo NL Hold'em $15+$1 9-player 221games 32%ROI 45%ITM $1148
      Turbo NL Hold'em $6+$0.50 9-player 200games 42%ROI 50%ITM $546

      where ROI = return on investment, and ITM = in the money


      i'd say that's pretty similar results to what you have.... and yet i'm here saying it's more swingier...
    • roshe40
      roshe40
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.03.2008 Posts: 42
      This greater variance you experience in SNGs as opposed to cash games must have something to do with you possessing well above average postflop skills. This would give you a greater opportunity to exploit cash games for profit as opposed to SNGs.

      Since SNGs have a constant stucture that precludes the variables that are involved in cash game play (players coming and going, table pace changing suddenly), they are theoretically by nature less variant a game type than cash games. So less variance in the structure of the SNG game should naturally lead to less variance in bankroll swings. Your experience would appear to be an exception to this.
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