Preflop Odds QQ against 99 and AK?

    • Irving3
      Irving3
      Basic
      Joined: 30.06.2011 Posts: 5
      Hey guys,

      yesterday I won bigtime when I called two preflop all-ins with QQ from last position (I was chip leader up to then). The others held AK and 99. Now I am wondering whether I actually played correctly. Normally I wouldn't go all-in with QQ, because KK and AA are too likely when two players go all-in preflop. But even assuming that I KNEW their cards, was it good play to call?

      Rule of thumb tells me that I was a 55-45 favorite over AK and a 80-20 favorite over 99. But then my total chances of losing against either player add up to 65 % - which is quite close to the third of the pot that I had to bet. Now I couldn't manage to figure out my EXACT odds. I figure that a total of 8 cards would have had me beat, unless one of my two cards turned up, too. Could somebody please walk me through on how to calculate my odds exactly? (but not taking into consideration straights or flushs, other than the AK-straight maybe)

      Thanks a lot!
  • 3 replies
    • desudash
      desudash
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.04.2011 Posts: 4
      in QQ v AKo v 99, you'll win 45.14% of the time and tie 0.11% of the time, which means your pot equity is 45.25% (for comparison AKo has a equity of 36.4 and 99 has an equity of 18.35)

      Say in this example each player had a $1 stack - making the total pot is $3. Your equity in this pot (ie: If this pot was played 10000 times, this is the amount you could expect to win) is 1.3575. So you'll profit from this spot in the long run, while AKo will break even and 99 will lose.

      To calculate your exact equity for any hand situation, get the Pokerstrategy.com Equilab.

      http://www.pokerstrategy.com/software/10/
    • Irving3
      Irving3
      Basic
      Joined: 30.06.2011 Posts: 5
      Thanks, desudash! That software seems very helpful, I'll certainly have a look at it.

      Maybe I shouldn't have said I need the EXACT odds, because I'm really more interested in "manually" figuring out my odds, given the outs that they had and my additional two outs given they got one of their outs. That is, I need an intuitive way to get as good an estimate of my odds as I can reasonably get without using sophisticated technology. Could you walk me through that, too?
    • Pascal
      Pascal
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.01.2011 Posts: 875
      nice post desudash
      and a great tip :)
      the equilab is a real amazing tool
      end of March Bierbaer did a live coaching
      which you can rewatch here http://www.pokerstrategy.com/video/17391/
      to get a good impression of equilab