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[NL2-NL10] 0.05/0.1 big loss analysis

    • rudders93
      rudders93
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.06.2011 Posts: 93
      Hi,

      I was looking for an analysis of my big losing hands. Despite apparently playing optimally (atleast according to the Pokertablerankings grader) I'm nevertheless down, mostly because of these suck outs. I was looking for some advice about what I did wrong, or whether this is just the natural variance of poker:

      The MP2 was a very aggressive player who I noticed would actively push just about anything that was mid/top pair and above. Had VPP of ~50!

      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (7 handed)

      Known players:
      MP3:
      $9.62
      CO:
      $10.00
      BU:
      $11.00
      SB:
      $2.60
      BB (Hero):
      $9.85
      MP1:
      $4.00
      MP2:
      $9.69


      Preflop: Hero is BB with 2, 2.
      MP1 calls $0.10, MP2 raises to $0.20, 4 folds, Hero calls $0.10, MP1 calls $0.10.

      Flop: ($0.65) 2, 9, T (3 players)
      Hero bets $0.62, MP1 folds, MP2 raises to $1.24, Hero raises to $3.00, MP2 raises to $4.76, Hero calls $1.76.

      Turn: ($10.17) 8 (2 players)
      Hero checks, MP2 raises to $4.73, Hero calls $4.73.

      River: ($19.63) 7 (2 players)


      Final Pot: $19.63.
      Results follow:

      Hero shows three of a kind, twos(2 2).
      MP2 shows a straight, jack high(T J).

      MP2 wins with a straight, jack high(T J).

      Was looking at it with the Equilab, after the flop I had a ~90% probability of winning, dunno if that factors into your advice ;)

      Thanks!
  • 3 replies
    • furculision
      furculision
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.03.2011 Posts: 474
      Don't look at individual outcomes,you had that guy crushed,keep it up and you will be fine.
      You should have raised more on the turn and push all-in against another raise.
    • Adapter1337
      Adapter1337
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2010 Posts: 734
      Hello!
      Fistly, don't look the grader of pokertablerating, I can say that this is a total nonsense, it calculates your average of something etc. not your game style, by this don't definitely build up your game, I haven't watched my game analyse from there, but at the moment I did this because of your post, they rank my game there:

      NL25FR
      PRE-FLOP TIGHTNESS: You are 9% tighter than optimal. Good Work! A - Im 16/14 and i think overall they have right, but they dont count, i play 24tables and im sure, for this its absolutley optimal for best $/h
      PRE-FLOP AGGRESSION You are 8% more aggressive than optimal. Good Work! A - I'm quite passive in preflop, 3b should defiintely be bigger and so on.
      FLOP AGGRESSIONYou are 20% more aggressive than optimal. Be somewhat less aggressive. C+ - I'm sure that my flop agression is excactly just like it has to be, for sure I can't be more passive there.
      TURN AGGRESSIONYou are 4% more aggressive than optimal. Good Work! A+ - I agree
      RIVER AGGRESSIONYou are 12% more aggressive than optimal. Be a little less aggressive. B+ - absolutely wrong, I'm very passive in river again since I play in 24 tables, surely the most optimal should be more agressive than I am.
      SHOWDOWN FREQUENCYYou showdown 22% less often than optimal. See more showdowns. C+ - I agree.

      What I want to say, is this, that according to this you can't build up your game, for example, I have found a very good and useful style for myself, which I think is the most optimal (especially for masstabling) to make the maximum $/h, if I would change my game according to their recommendations, I would mess up my game plan totally - snd this style would be wrong. I think they take some average statistics of winning players and build up this way "an optimal game"

      Now to the hand:
      Preflop: call is surely the best thing here to be done, there is no other chance
      Flop: DON'T SLOWPLAY, for sure raise him to all in, he has already shown a great agression, he doesn't fold here anymore, we have nuts, we wat to get the stack in here, this is a VERY drawheavy board, and there are very very many turn cards which we don't like
      Turn: As played, call

      Generally: NL10 is not a place where to slowplay and make some tricky game, just play for value.
    • rudders93
      rudders93
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.06.2011 Posts: 93
      Ah i see. Ok, I won't slow play anything else then at these low stakes! Thanks!!