Mathematician needed....

    • jass1960
      jass1960
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.04.2010 Posts: 709
      Hi Guys,

      Twice last night I flopped 2 pair KQ flop KQ and QJ flop QJ and both times I wqs beaten by QQ and JJ respectively making trips.

      I couldn't remember the last time that this happened (and I play a lot of hands). .

      So my question to a maths guru - is what is the probability of 3 cards being dealt to 2 players and the 4th hitting on the flop?

      Cheers

      Jass :D
  • 9 replies
    • JazBenz
      JazBenz
      Silver
      Joined: 09.02.2010 Posts: 293
      you know after losing to 5%ers and 75% vs 25% preflop constantly, i have realized, math doesnt mean shit lol

      on PKR you can count that Q9 wins vs QK 70% of the time. or the worst hand in general seems to win way more often than the best hand. and this isnt just my subjective experience, its also just watching other players. But then again PKR has the worst players in history of online poker, so that might be a big part of it that you constantly see players make the worst decisions and get rewarded for them.
    • wategun7
      wategun7
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.10.2010 Posts: 66
      Originally posted by jass1960
      Hi Guys,

      Twice last night I flopped 2 pair KQ flop KQ and QJ flop QJ and both times I wqs beaten by QQ and JJ respectively making trips.

      I couldn't remember the last time that this happened (and I play a lot of hands). .

      So my question to a maths guru - is what is the probability of 3 cards being dealt to 2 players and the 4th hitting on the flop?

      Cheers

      Jass :D
      So you hold KQ, you assume your opponent holds QQ, what's the prob of a Q being on the flop?

      In that case there are 48 cards left which could be on the flop, one of which is the Q. The prob is therefore 3/48 which is about 6%.

      If you have QQ, and know your opponent has Qx where x is not Q, then the prob is similarly 3/49 (still about 6%).
    • Wriggers
      Wriggers
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,250
      Originally posted by JazBenz
      you know after losing to 5%ers and 75% vs 25% preflop constantly, i have realized, math doesnt mean shit lol

      on PKR you can count that Q9 wins vs QK 70% of the time. or the worst hand in general seems to win way more often than the best hand. and this isnt just my subjective experience, its also just watching other players. But then again PKR has the worst players in history of online poker, so that might be a big part of it that you constantly see players make the worst decisions and get rewarded for them.
      Yes it is. Poker is not rigged.
    • Riesutas
      Riesutas
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.05.2009 Posts: 59
      Originally posted by jass1960
      what is the probability of 3 cards being dealt to 2 players and the 4th hitting on the flop?
      correct me if I'm wrong

      1/48 + 1/47 + 1/46 ~~6.38% which is 1 in about 15-16 times
    • malosanmaka
      malosanmaka
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 508
      Originally posted by Riesutas
      Originally posted by jass1960
      what is the probability of 3 cards being dealt to 2 players and the 4th hitting on the flop?
      correct me if I'm wrong

      1/48 + 1/47 + 1/46 ~~6.38% which is 1 in about 15-16 times
      Nop, wategun7 was correct.

      Chance of Q not hitting is 47/48 * 46/47 * 45/46 which ends up as 45/48 so 3/48 is correct.
    • Alficor1
      Alficor1
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.06.2010 Posts: 7,291
      50%
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 9,061
      It depends on who holds what, and what action is taken.

      If I am holding the QQ, and I fold, or if I am holding the KQ and I bet, then the probability of the Q hitting on any further street is 1 (rounded off to the nearest 3 decimal places).
      Since there are 3 cards on the flop the probability of the Q hitting is 3/5

      QED

      If the situations are reversed, then the probability is the limit approaching 0.

      If the K in the KQ hand is taken into account, then according to string theory, on being dealt a K along with any other broadway card, the other 3 kings disappear from the deck unless two of them are in an opponents hand.

      String theory applies because every card is attached to a cosmic string, which pulls them from the deck as necessary.

      I hope this clears things up.
    • jass1960
      jass1960
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.04.2010 Posts: 709
      Originally posted by VorpalF2F
      It depends on who holds what, and what action is taken.

      If I am holding the QQ, and I fold, or if I am holding the KQ and I bet, then the probability of the Q hitting on any further street is 1 (rounded off to the nearest 3 decimal places).
      Since there are 3 cards on the flop the probability of the Q hitting is 3/5

      QED

      If the situations are reversed, then the probability is the limit approaching 0.

      If the K in the KQ hand is taken into account, then according to string theory, on being dealt a K along with any other broadway card, the other 3 kings disappear from the deck unless two of them are in an opponents hand.

      String theory applies because every card is attached to a cosmic string, which pulls them from the deck as necessary.

      I hope this clears things up.
      Perfectly :D
    • tcs35
      tcs35
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.01.2009 Posts: 3,583
      Can't believe mr jb hasn't found this thread