Superstition

    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Lost today 3-stacks playing on 1 table. I was outdrawed all the hands and I believe that I´ve played these all perfect, expect the last hand when I´ve called overshove with two pair (QJ) on AQJT board. But player was unreasonable: 3-bet/called my 4-bet with A8s and outdrawed me by runner-runner flush.

      I´ve noticed, that if I start loosing at one table I keep loosing and I can´t do nothing about it. Maybe I should then choose another table when I´ve lost 2 stacks. I also could make some stupid mistakes, like the last hand 22$ call.

      Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Party-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

      UTG ($38.47)
      MP ($25.58)
      Hero ($25)
      Button ($23.30)
      SB ($50.02)
      BB ($21.75)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with J, Q.
      1 fold, MP calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.25, 3 folds, MP calls $1.

      Flop: ($2.85) A, J, T (2 players)
      MP checks, Hero bets $2, MP calls $2.

      Turn: ($6.85) Q (2 players)
      MP checks, Hero checks.

      River: ($6.85) 3 (2 players)
      MP calls $25.58 (All-In), Hero calls $25 (All-In).

      Final Pot: $57.43

      Results in white below:
      MP has 6s Kh (straight, ace high).
      Hero has Js Qc (two pair, queens and jacks).
      Outcome: MP wins $57.42.
  • 12 replies
    • SonicXT
      SonicXT
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4,736
      Welcome to the world of low luck low stakes hold'em.
    • SonicXT
      SonicXT
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4,736
      Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)
      Position:
      Stack
      Hero:
      $40.55
      CO:
      $39.09
      MP3:
      $8.23
      BU:
      $9.13
      SB:
      $30.75

      0.10/0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BB with K:heart: , K:club:
      2 folds, BU bets to $9.13 (All-In), SB folds, Hero calls $8.88.

      Flop: ($18.36) J:heart: , 5:heart: , 2:club:
      Turn: ($18.36) Q:club:
      River: ($18.36) 4:heart:


      Final Pot: $18.36

      Results follow (highlight to see):
      Hero shows [ Kh, Kc ] a pair of Kings
      BU shows [ As, Ad ] a pair of Aces
      BU wins $17.45 USD with a pair of Aces.

      Gotta love'm :D
    • aanty2000
      aanty2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2007 Posts: 484
      kaits i think you should have folded your pairs on that board . it is a scary board for him too ... maybe hes retarded but must of the time he has at least a straight or two pair with A on that board ... i would give up ...
    • erob60
      erob60
      Gold
      Joined: 08.03.2007 Posts: 165
      I broke a mirror and have had diabolical luck since X(
    • SonicXT
      SonicXT
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4,736
      At least you got yourself to blame for it :D
    • vladnz
      vladnz
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2007 Posts: 1,355
      Originally posted by SonicXT
      Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)
      Position:
      Stack
      Hero:
      $40.55
      CO:
      $39.09
      MP3:
      $8.23
      BU:
      $9.13
      SB:
      $30.75

      0.10/0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BB with K:heart: , K:club:
      2 folds, BU bets to $9.13 (All-In), SB folds, Hero calls $8.88.

      Flop: ($18.36) J:heart: , 5:heart: , 2:club:
      Turn: ($18.36) Q:club:
      River: ($18.36) 4:heart:


      Final Pot: $18.36

      Results follow (highlight to see):
      Hero shows [ Kh, Kc ] a pair of Kings
      BU shows [ As, Ad ] a pair of Aces
      BU wins $17.45 USD with a pair of Aces.

      Gotta love'm :D


      where is the luck here???
    • swissmoumout
      swissmoumout
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.02.2007 Posts: 3,385
      Originally posted by vladnz


      where is the luck here???
      How about ~50:1 chance of being against AA?
    • SonicXT
      SonicXT
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4,736
      One in 50 ?
      I lost that three times today alone ...
    • swissmoumout
      swissmoumout
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.02.2007 Posts: 3,385
      yup.. same for me a few days ago.. ran KK into AA 3 times... anyway I think it's something like 1/221 * nbr of opponents.. so in this case roughly 1/55. I may be wrong though
    • Timor83
      Timor83
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.06.2007 Posts: 2,793
      It's about 1 time in 24 according to Dan Harrington...
    • swissmoumout
      swissmoumout
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.02.2007 Posts: 3,385
      Originally posted by Timor83
      It's about 1 time in 24 according to Dan Harrington...
      That would be for a full ring table. Actually the odds aren't quite 1/221 * [nbr of opponents] but it's close. Here are the exact percentages for a 6-handed game

      Originally posted in a forum that I'm not allowed to link
      chances of having AA = 1/221. 5 opponents. 5 * 1/221 = 5/221 = 1/44.2, or roughly 1/44. However :)

      52 card deck, you know 2 cards. That leaves 50 unknown cards.

      2 card combinations from 50 cards, C(50,2) = 1225
      AA combinations = 6

      Chances of any 1 opponent having AA = 6/1225 = .49% or 203 to 1 against. Note that the odds already change because we're only dealing with 50 unknown cards rather than 52.

      5 opponents, so we initially multiply by 5 and get a figure of about 2.45% This will be very close to the correct answer, however we have to subtract the times that 2 people have AA to get the exact answer to the question "if you have KK how often will at least 1 opponent have AA (in a 6 handed game)?"

      AAAA is 1 combination of 4 cards.
      50 cards so C(50,4) = 230300
      5 opponents, you need 2 for a 4 card combination, so C(5,2) = 10

      That gives (1/230300) * 10 or 1/23030. The final, exact, answer is:

      6/1225 * 5 - 1/23030 = 0.0244463743, or about 2.4%, which is odds of 39.9 to 1 against or roughly 1/41.
    • Timor83
      Timor83
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.06.2007 Posts: 2,793
      You could have just multiplied the 24 with (10/6) :P