# What the hell? Way below EV on a huge sample

• Bronze
Joined: 15.10.2010
This is what happened :

I changed my nickname and started playing BSS at NL10 after playing 90k hands or so MSS. I changed the strat because I wasn't happy with the winrate I was having, plus that I learned enough to play BSS. After 2 days I had incredible badbeats and you can see my graph :

But that is super small sample so I thought "Hey, let's check my old graphic", by the way I recently downloaded HEM free trial, I was using a freeware hud before, so I never had the chance to check my graphics. This is it :

Keep in mind that I was playing with 40bb stacks the whole time, that's -10 BI over a huge, I dare to say, sample. Can anyone enlighten me if this is normal?

My EV adjusted winnings are 383.69\$ but my true winnings are 346.07\$.
• 21 replies
• Coach
Coach
Joined: 03.08.2009
If your EV line had been shooting back and forth across your green line +10/-10 etc, you'd think nothing of being 10bi above EV.

This is perfectly normal, and 100k is perhaps not as large a sample as you think it is (variance is huge, bigger than most players actually imagine). It's not unheard of to be 40bi below ev over 100k hands for example.
• Bronze
Joined: 15.10.2010
So you mean that a cumulated -80\$ difference over 340\$ winnings is nothing?
Why do I never run above the EV line?
• Bronze
Joined: 08.02.2011
@BadeaCelRau, rather than wondering whether this sort of difference is unusual, why not do the easy calculation to see how significant it is?

Suppose you have a standard deviation of 80bb/100. Then on 100,000 hands, the SD is 80*sqrt(1000)bb ~= 2500 bb. The difference on your graph is 2000 bb. About 25% of people have a worse difference than yours making it entirely unsurprising.

Of course more precise numbers will give a slightly different result, but a similar conclusion.
• Bronze
Joined: 18.05.2009
sometimes I have 10BI EV difference in one day..wish I had 80\$ ev difference in 120k hands...wow
• Bronze
Joined: 15.10.2010
Who established the standard deviation of 80bb/100

I'll check all the graphs I see posted here and see if anyone has a worse graphic.

Originally posted by OZSA
sometimes I have 10BI EV difference in one day..wish I had 80\$ ev difference in 120k hands...wow
Dude that's 1/4 of my winnings ... I don't know what limit are you playing
• Coach
Coach
Joined: 03.08.2009
So you mean that a cumulated -80\$ difference over 340\$ winnings is nothing?
Why do I never run above the EV line?
Yup....unfortunately.

It's better to come to terms with this fact sooner rather than later. Some people have even quit their day jobs before realising what variance can do to them.
• Silver
Joined: 18.03.2008
LOL THAT'S NOTHING I'VE BEEN 10 BUYINS BELOW EV IN A SINGLE SESSION
• Silver
Joined: 18.03.2008
MORE THAN ONCE
• Bronze
Joined: 15.10.2010
I cheked the first 6 pages from the bad graphs topic and I only found PLO graphs, or very few hands until this guy called cryoburn posted his Party graph

http://j.imagehost.org/view/0406/mega_underEV

PartyPoker = thieves?

@ihufa
Wanna see my 888 graphic? The 2 lines got nothing in common but the results are very close in the end. I'm talking about a big sample, not a single session.
• Coach
Coach
Joined: 03.08.2009
Just thought I'd share this with you guys. Sorry, I cut off x-axis, but it's basically 1-100k sample. (multiply x-axis by 100 for number of hands)

It's from a variance simulator I downloaded, where you input a std. deviation and a winrate. You can then repeatedly press F9 to generate some different graphs you might expect given those two factors.

Most are positive given a positive winrate. Some however, are shocking.....

• Bronze
Joined: 23.12.2007
BadeaCelRau, sorry to say it, but that's not really a big sample Look at it in a good way, you are still winning even though you are abit under EV

GL
• Bronze
Joined: 18.07.2010
Am I the only one who just doesn't think this stat matters? As far as I understand it's only measured when you go all in BEFORE the flop. So it's a measurement of how you fare when premium hands match up. I mean...what does that tell you about the rest of your play? Say you only go in with AA or KK...well you'll probably do well... I guess as you're only getting expected EV measured on your top 2 hands.

What if you extend that to AA, KK, QQ, JJ, 10 10, , 99AK suited, AKo, AQs, AQo. I mean...you're going to have a pretty tough time matching the expected EV line of the first guy.

I just don't get how it really reflects on your ability. All in preflop is what? A few % of your hands?

Maybe someone could clarify this..
• Bronze
Joined: 15.10.2010
@w34z3l
Cand you please remind me the name of that site?

Anyway I lost faith in PartyPoker. Nobody plays there anyway and after seeing the graphs :/ ... I don't see myself running above EV too soon.
• Coach
Coach
Joined: 03.08.2009

Head over to anskypoker.com and look for it in the "tools" section.

@Edukator99

Allin-ev is calculated from anytime you are allin, regardless of it being preflop or postflop. Anytime you do not go allin, your allin-ev equals the amount won or lost in the hand.

You are correct in that it is possibly not that useful; it just measures one particular type of variance, and is not representative of your true expected value.
• Bronze
Joined: 15.10.2010
So how many more hands should I keep playing to be above EV?

Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

Play hand

\$0.05/\$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)

Known players:
UTG2:
\$10.28
MP1:
\$0.10
MP2:
\$4.40
MP3:
\$10.50
CO (Hero):
\$10.00
BU:
\$9.69
SB:
\$9.50
BB:
\$3.00

Preflop: Hero is CO with K, K.
Hero posts deadblind, 4 folds, Hero raises to \$0.40, BU folds, SB calls \$0.35, BB folds.

Flop: (\$0.9) 4, 9, T (2 players)
SB bets \$0.10, Hero raises to \$0.90, SB calls \$0.80.

Turn: (\$2.7) 7 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets \$2.57, SB calls \$2.57.

River: (\$7.84) 6 (2 players)
SB bets \$0.10, Hero calls \$0.10.

Final Pot: \$8.04.
Results follow:

Hero shows a pair of kings(K K).
SB shows a flush, ten high(4 2).

SB wins with a flush, ten high(4 2).

Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

Play hand

\$0.05/\$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)

Known players:
CO (Hero):
\$10.25
BU:
\$11.98
SB:
\$2.29
BB:
\$3.25
UTG2:
\$10.15
MP1:
\$10.10
MP2:
\$10.67
MP3:
\$4.85

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q, Q.
4 folds, Hero raises to \$0.40, BU calls \$0.40, SB raises to \$2.29, BB folds, Hero calls \$1.89, BU folds.

Flop: (\$5.08) 7, 2, T (2 players)

Turn: (\$5.08) 9 (2 players)

River: (\$5.08) 4 (2 players)

Final Pot: \$5.08.
Results follow:

SB shows three of a kind, tens(T T).
Hero shows a pair of queens(Q Q).

SB wins with three of a kind, tens(T T).
• Bronze
Joined: 02.08.2009
[ ] way below EV
[ ] huge sample
[x] EV line is useless
• Bronze
Joined: 19.05.2011
There is only 1 bad beat at around hand #1000. And small sample.
It's normal

and (if I understand it correctly) it's very hard to run above AI EV, if you only all in with KK and AA or other premium cards.

If you want to run above AI EV, try this:

everytime you get 72o, go all in preflop!
• Bronze
Joined: 15.10.2010
I checked my NL4 graph and it appears it is possible to run above EV :-O

@patszerdonk
That's not true, the line is calculated every time you are all-in or at showdown, ideally it should match your winnings perfectly. But most graphs from winnings players I've seen run above EV (but nobody mentions being on an upswing).

Maybe I'm super lucky at picking up lucky cards when calling with the worse hand and that compensates for a below EV graph. Anyway, you guys convinced me, sometimes the fishes donate more than your expected gain. I'll keep playing a few hands and post here when I run above EV (currently 360bb under )
• Bronze
Joined: 25.11.2008

in 1 session

trust me its easy to get under ev