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[NL20-NL50] NL25 AK from BU

    • ACi0coiu
      Joined: 19.05.2010 Posts: 3,517
      Poker Stars $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1365618
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      Hero (BTN): $50.00 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 12, 3B: 4, AF: 3.6, Hands: 120022
      SB: $89.46 - VPIP: 26, PFR: 20, 3B: 5, AF: 6.0, Hands: 61
      BB: $49.21 - VPIP: 27, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.5, Hands: 15
      UTG: $31.54 - VPIP: 50, PFR: 22, 3B: 10, AF: 17.0, Hands: 32
      CO: $32.21 - VPIP: 54, PFR: 13, 3B: 14, AF: 0.8, Hands: 24

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with A :diamond: K :heart:
      UTG calls $0.25, CO raises to $1, Hero raises to $3.85, 3 folds, CO calls $2.85

      Flop: ($8.30) 2 :heart: 4 :spade: 8 :club: (2 players)
      CO checks, Hero bets $5.00, CO calls $5

      Turn: ($18.30) 8 :spade: (2 players)
      CO checks, Hero checks

      River: ($18.30) J :diamond: (2 players)
      CO bets $7.00, Hero folds

      He is a tight raiser and first I had second second thoughts about the 3bet, but in the end he is a fish and I guess I'm in front on his calling range. I think his raising=calling range.

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 54.70% 47.56% 7.14% AKs, AKo
      MP3 45.30% 38.15% 7.14% 99+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+, KQo .

      His non-paired combinations are 60% of total and I think that he plays ch/c with them, so my cbet is a thin valuebet.
      If I shoot out a 2nd barrel there is a chance that he's folding some of the non-paired combinations and stick in with the paired ones, so in my oppinion the 2nd barrel is bad.
      On a 9- river I think I can try a very thin value, because I expect him to bet here with a pair, even if the bet is smalish.
  • 1 reply
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      You can likely give up on the turn, since he mostly has there p-s and then fold to his river bet. But since you´re deep you can also play:
      - bet turn 9$ and then shove most rivers or

      check back turn and shove river to that bet size. He mostly has there some kind of pp and I think you have very high fold equity unless he has set or better and you can easily rep JJ that you went for pot control

      But for that you need to have some good table image and opponent who can fold marginal hands