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[NL20-NL50] NL25 66 from MP

    • ACi0coiu
      ACi0coiu
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.05.2010 Posts: 3,517
      Poker Stars $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1365652
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      Hero (UTG): $25.00 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 12, 3B: 4, AF: 3.6, Hands: 120022
      CO: $21.65 - VPIP: 33, PFR: 28, 3B: 13, AF: 4.5, Hands: 81
      BTN: $31.44 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 20, 3B: 9, AF: 3.8, Hands: 213
      SB: $25.00 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 13, 3B: 4, AF: 3.5, Hands: 195
      BB: $35.30 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 13, 3B: 11, AF: 3.0, Hands: 97

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with 6 :club: 6 :heart:
      Hero raises to $0.90, 2 folds, SB calls $0.80, 1 fold

      Flop: ($2.05) 7 :club: 5 :spade: 7 :spade: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $1.30, SB calls $1.30

      Turn: ($4.65) J :club: (2 players)
      SB bets $2.95, Hero calls $2.95

      River: ($10.55) T :spade: (2 players)
      SB bets $6.75, Hero folds

      WTSD:10, fold cbet 57, bet OOP turn 75 (4), AFq flop 25,turn 78,river 50.

      My calling range guess for BB is any 22-JJ and AJ-AQ,KQs.
      On the flop I think he will have the same range, maybe ocasionally folding 22-55.
      His aggression on the turn is very big related to other streets, so I think he's a happy floater.
      Now, I beat only 66-, AQ,KQ. He's made hand on the turn is AJ and JJ, but he doesn't bet with JJ and is questionable if he bets with AJ. let's assume he does.

      55-TT : 36 comb.
      AJ,AQ: 32 comb, 16 comb with made hand.
      KQs: 8 comb

      AJ is 21% of his range, and with WTSD of only 10% I think a raise on the turn is the best play.
      It must only work 20% of the time, so we'll have a total win of 15$
      win 7$ from one fold=>7*4=28$ win
      loose 13$*1= 13$ => total win 28-13=15$
  • 1 reply
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      If he likes to float then I´d raise/fold turn to 8$, since your range is very strong and I doubt he would take that line with 7x or Jx so I think he mostly has there just draw or air but at the same time you likely can´t call him down