Calculating Fold Equity?

    • sigauli
      sigauli
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.04.2010 Posts: 91
      I need to figure this out so I can more effectively review my semibluff plays.

      So I take this formula from the Poker Glossary

      EV(Bet) = 20% * Payoff(B calls and A wins the showdown) + 10% * Payoff(B folds)+ 70% * Payoff(B calls and A loses showdown)


      And try to adjust it for my example.

      I am on the flop and going to try a semibluff c/r OOP. Pot is 5.5$ after Villain cbet. I am going to invest 2$, if I get called my equity is going to be 38,12%. I have to find out how much fold equity I need for my semibluff to be breakeven.

      EV(0)=38% * 6.5$ + x% * 5.5$ + (62% - x)(-2$)
      EV(0)=2.47 + 0.055x - 1.38 + 2x
      EV(0)= 1.09 + 2.055x
      2.055x= -1.09
      x= -0.5304
      Does this mean I need 53% Fold Equity? It seems to high to me.
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