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[NL2-NL10] NL10 AJ 2 barrels on low board

    • sgaf
      Joined: 07.12.2007 Posts: 146
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($13.11)
      BB ($7.02)
      UTG ($16.25)
      UTG+1 ($11.69)
      CO ($10)
      BTN ($7.94)

      Dealt to Hero J:heart: A:heart:

      fold, fold, fold, BTN calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.50, BB calls $0.40, BTN calls $0.40

      FLOP ($1.50) 2:club: 2:diamond: 8:heart:

      Hero bets $1, BB calls $1, BTN folds

      TURN ($3.50) 2:club: 2:diamond: 8:heart: 6:heart:

      [color=red]Hero bets $1.50, BB raises to $5.52 (AI),
      Hero calls $4.02[/color]

      RIVER ($14.54) 2:club: 2:diamond: 8:heart: 6:heart: K:club:

      Hero shows J:heart: A:heart:
      (Pre 50%, Flop 27.2%, Turn 0.0%)

      BB shows 6:club: 6:diamond:
      (Pre 50%, Flop 72.8%, Turn 100.0%)
      BB wins $13.83

      So I 2.6:1 pot odds when she pushes on the turn, which I think means I need 38% equity right? I put her through equilator as 88+ 66 AQs+ KQs+ and it comes out to 40% for AJ vs. her range. Am I right to call here? Is my range for her correct?

      I guess I should have bet bigger on the turn to save myself this decision :]
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello sgaf,

      Why do you think he would shove there with AQs+ or KQs+? With just A high or K high? I don't ever see him shipping with those hands.

      And we need ~28% equity and we get:

      Board: 2:club: 2:diamond: 8:heart:  6:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    77.85%  77.85%   0.00% { 66+, A2s }
      UTG+1  22.15%  22.15%   0.00% { AhJh }

      So I wont Call it. And actually I wouldn't even 2nd barrel it since I don't expect to have much fold equity there anyways and either he ain't gonna bet with worse. And even if we bet then if he has any kind of pair then he will be very likely shipping while he doesn't have much left anyways.

      Best regards.