[NL2-NL10] NL10 - 99 Contibet against this board on flop?

    • Gremlin68
      Gremlin68
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.08.2006 Posts: 345
      Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)       
      Position:
      Stack
      MP3:
      $7.28
      Hero:
      $1.70

      0.05/0.10 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BU with 9:heart: , 9:club:
      UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.10, 2 folds, MP3 calls $0.10, CO folds, Hero raises to $0.60, 3 folds, MP3 calls $0.50.

      Flop: ($1.45) T:heart: , K:heart: , A:spade: (2 players)
      MP3 checks, Hero bets $1.10 (All-In), MP3 calls $1.10.

        Straight is possible I'm behind against T K A, I have left 1,10 of my stack. Correct to play the contibet here which is an allin due to my stacksize left? No reads of my opponent. Next time on a similar board I would tend to c/f, but in this spot I thought it would be helpful to keep the pressure.

      Turn: ($3.65) T:spade:
      River: ($3.65) 2:heart:


      Final Pot: $3.65
  • 12 replies
    • frzl
      frzl
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      Joined: 25.04.2006 Posts: 9,876
      these spots suck but nh
    • Berliner1982
      Berliner1982
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      Joined: 12.07.2006 Posts: 5,644
      If your opponent is folding in 50% of the time, its profitable to go All-In here. Even if he calls we still have 2 outs in this spot most of the time. But on NL10 I would prefer to play check/fold here, since they call you very lightly.
    • Gremlin68
      Gremlin68
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.08.2006 Posts: 345
      Originally posted by Berliner1982
      If your opponent is folding in 50% of the time, its profitable to go All-In here. Even if he calls we still have 2 outs in this spot most of the time. But on NL10 I would prefer to play check/fold here, since they call you very lightly.
      I was beat at this spot already, he hit his straight on the flop with QJ. Thinking as before I could have folded this hand on this flop. seeing that he calls a raise preflop my play was ok i think. but knowing that a laydown wins sometimes more than a play a laydown also is profitable.
    • Gremlin68
      Gremlin68
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      Joined: 18.08.2006 Posts: 345
      btw! nice to have my hand evaluated by you berliner today. hope everything went well. i'm quite sure otherwise you had more important things to do.
    • Gremlin68
      Gremlin68
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.08.2006 Posts: 345
      Originally posted by frzl
      these spots suck but nh
      sorry franzl ;)

      didn't want to ignore you

      yep it sucks and i had his hand in mind. but on this limit i played it. a slowplay with the ready straight is fine, but normally on this limit i have an equity
    • DoigteurFou
      DoigteurFou
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.08.2007 Posts: 1,528
      at that limit with 3 overcards and no draw there is almost no hope you're ahead (except from a pocket pair caller, there are a lot at that limit). SSS says to contibet but as for me in these spots you have a poor equity... On higher limits contibet looks okay, but not on NL10 i think.
    • drachdudek
      drachdudek
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.11.2007 Posts: 656
      Originally posted by Berliner1982
      But on NL10 I would prefer to play check/fold here, since they call you very lightly.
      I COMPLETELY AGREE :)
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      Originally posted by Berliner1982
      If your opponent is folding in 50% of the time, its profitable to go All-In here. Even if he calls we still have 2 outs in this spot most of the time. But on NL10 I would prefer to play check/fold here, since they call you very lightly.
      My concerns:

      If we assume that we need 50% of FE:
      0 = 0.5(FE)*1.45$ + 0.5*[2.55$*Equity - 1.1$*(1 - Equity)]
      Equity ~9% - equity needed for the situations described by Berliner - when we are behind and have 2 outs to improve.

      On average our equity will be a little bit higher due to the possible flush draws and players who is capable of calling with lower pp here (given the offered odds and level of players on NL 10 I assume there will be some). The pre-flop action (limp/call from MP3) tend to indicate very loose range (suited connectors/gapers).
      If we assume that we have 15% equity when called, our needed fold equity drops to 35%, which is very much possible to achieve in some situations.

      Overall, I agree that in this particular spot push might be not profitable, but this situation is very odds/reads dependent. If the flop texture, odds and opponents change slightly the whole picture will reverse.

      1 opponent (especially who had checked to you), more then 2:1 pot odds and our tight pre-flop range will make push + EV in 99% of the cases. So for those who completely agree :) I would recommend to make sure that you are aware of what you are doing.

      Personally I wouldn`t recommend to deviate from the standard aggression level, offered by the Basic SSS strategy. If you do so, at least, make sure that you posted your hand on the forum.

      I like frzl`s evaluation of this hand,

      Originally posted by frzl
      these spots suck but nh
    • Gremlin68
      Gremlin68
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.08.2006 Posts: 345
      Originally posted by xylere
      Originally posted by Berliner1982
      If your opponent is folding in 50% of the time, its profitable to go All-In here. Even if he calls we still have 2 outs in this spot most of the time. But on NL10 I would prefer to play check/fold here, since they call you very lightly.
      I like frzl`s evaluation of this hand,

      Originally posted by frzl
      these spots suck but nh
      I like frzl's evaluation too. It's close but in the end it's playable. But as mentioned just in the beginning (and I did it in some quite similar situations the day after) I would play c/f at this spot and on this limit.

      Thx @ all, this hand I learned a lot in this forum being discussed so explicit. Important to know that it was really a close spot.
    • xylere
      xylere
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      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      Did not like your quote, though :)

      It looks like I didn`t like Berliner's evaluation, which is not true, since he probably has way more experience playing on the lower limits then me and frzl in sum (coachings). My thought was that beginners, who don`t have much experience won`t be able to determine the spots where deviation from the standard strategy has higher EV.
    • Gremlin68
      Gremlin68
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.08.2006 Posts: 345
      Originally posted by xylere
      Did not like your quote, though :)

      It looks like I didn`t like Berliner's evaluation, which is not true, since he probably has way more experience playing on the lower limits then me and frzl in sum (coachings). My thought was that beginners, who don`t have much experience won`t be able to determine the spots where deviation from the standard strategy has higher EV.
      that's not the case in fact. as seen in the discussion both plays push or c/f have their rights in this close spot. I try to take the best out of this for my play due to my skills.

      Your detailed analysis was very fine so I can see that from the mathematical side and you said that it was possibly +EV to push here. So fine because I like the advanced analysis, even though not be able to use it in the situation of a running hand. doesn't mean I don't like your evaluation.

      Berliner said that he would rather play c/f here so fine even if it's close (I think it's important that he mentioned "on this limit", because this was important for my decision in this hand, because villain could play anything)
      I always listen to Berliner's advices because he's able to put it on the spot for beginners. not too complicated but fitting to the situation.

      So back to my thoughts in this hand. three overcards on the flop... on this limit I would play it c/f today against unknown, because any (Tx) Ax Kx could play here on this limit.

      For me it was important to know that it wasn't a basic mistake to play like I did. For me I took the decision to play those hands more passively against unknown.

      Otherwise this was a typical shortstack situation. so for me I think I played this hand ok but know now that a fold won't have been a real weak move.

      Wow long answer. To make it short, I'm thankful for each advice and try to use it in my game. So thanks. :)
    • xylere
      xylere
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      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      btw, link for everyone. The Anatomy of the Contibet

      it assumes big stack, but I found it very interesting