Bad Beat Jackpots (Mathematical Genius Needed)

    • RubyWesson
      RubyWesson
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      Joined: 15.08.2010 Posts: 363
      Right so after reading the news yesterday about the 1 Million Bad Beat jackpot,if you didn't manage to read it here it is :

      http://www.pokerstrategy.com/news/world-of-poker/The-Largest-Bad-Beat-Jackpot-Ever-Over-%E2%82%AC1-Million_48863/

      Since i read that Ive been wondering using some amazing mathematical genius i was wondering if we could have a few people try and work out how much the jackpot would need to be at each poker-site to become EV+ we all know the chances are slim, but at some point it must become profitable. So i will help out as much as possible if we can get the community to pitch in. I'm not all that good at maths but i do not mind researching all the different sites getting all the restrictions and requirements, and if we gather enough info i may ask PokerStrategy.com if they could file it as an article. If its thorough enough i do not see why they would not, it would either show the profitability of a bad beat jackpot or we can prove that its not profitable and keep people from playing them unless they reach 100 billion dollars mwahaha so if your up for helping let me know.
  • 34 replies
    • conall88
      conall88
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      Joined: 02.01.2009 Posts: 1,715
      unless your gonna be playing >60k hands/month, I doubt its even worth thinking about.
    • RubyWesson
      RubyWesson
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      Originally posted by conall88
      unless your gonna be playing >60k hands/month, I doubt its even worth thinking about.
      Why would how many hands play affect the results? You only have to play 1 hand to be able to win?
    • pavels4444
      pavels4444
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      Joined: 09.09.2010 Posts: 1,539
      Originally posted by RubyWesson
      Originally posted by conall88
      unless your gonna be playing >60k hands/month, I doubt its even worth thinking about.
      Why would how many hands play affect the results? You only have to play 1 hand to be able to win?
      lol now i see why you arent a math genious
    • RubyWesson
      RubyWesson
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      Joined: 15.08.2010 Posts: 363
      Originally posted by pavels4444
      Originally posted by RubyWesson
      Originally posted by conall88
      unless your gonna be playing >60k hands/month, I doubt its even worth thinking about.
      Why would how many hands play affect the results? You only have to play 1 hand to be able to win?
      lol now i see why you arent a math genious

      You have got as much chance at winning it on hand A or hand B, the things that will make it EV+ is

      a. How much the jackpot is
      b. What hands minimum requirement
      c. Players dealt in

      and maybe a few others.

      Obviously playing 60k hands you will more likely win it then having played 1 hand, but you will also pay 60k times more in rake so the calculations (i think) should be worked out on 1 hand
    • thazar
      thazar
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      Joined: 14.09.2009 Posts: 6,560
      I think you have to calculate as well:

      - the amount of the jackpot that you win if you are the loser in the bad beat
      - how much do you win if you are the winner of the bad beat
      - how much do you win if you are in the hand but folded before showdown.
      - do you win anything if you fold preflop
      - how many jackpot tables are running?
      - ratio how many total h/hr on your table to h/hr on all jackpot tables
    • RubyWesson
      RubyWesson
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      Joined: 15.08.2010 Posts: 363
      Originally posted by thazar
      I think you have to calculate as well:

      - the amount of the jackpot that you win if you are the loser in the bad beat
      - how much do you win if you are the winner of the bad beat
      - how much do you win if you are in the hand but folded before showdown.
      - do you win anything if you fold preflop
      - how many jackpot tables are running?
      - ratio how many total h/hr on your table to h/hr on all jackpot tables

      Would you like me to edit these into first post?
    • thazar
      thazar
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      Joined: 14.09.2009 Posts: 6,560
      not really. just a few things I thought of. I think however you need to think in more terms of more than 1 hand but also include probability of someone else winning it at your table and the probability of someone else winning it at another table.

      I think the best would be for you to gather as much fact as possible in terms of terms of rules and put them here and then ask for jbpatzer or sapheal to help you with the complete calculations.
    • RubyWesson
      RubyWesson
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      Joined: 15.08.2010 Posts: 363
      Its going to be difficult because going to have to figure out how much rake is taken and how it would affect your winning untill you would hit the jackpot if ever :P
    • thazar
      thazar
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      Joined: 14.09.2009 Posts: 6,560
      yes how much rake is taken for each hand (I think it is a fixed value), and how much do you win of the jackpot depending if you suffer the bad beat, if you win the hand or if you are just in the hand or even if you fold preflop.

      I think they have a page on their site with most of the info ;)


      Regards

      Thazar
    • clandestineAl
      clandestineAl
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      Joined: 14.06.2010 Posts: 569
      4200 to 1 to hit quads so how do we calculate the odds of hitting quad Tens or better. Then we also have to work out the odds of everything above that which can beat us. So for the poker strategy guy who won it on PP it was

      quad tens = 4200 to 1

      against the other guys

      royal flush = 650000 to 1

      I don't think it is as easy as just multiplying them together though. Would be interested to know what the odds of your quads getting beaten are. It has never happened to me so I would rather save it for a BBJ table if possible.
    • thazar
      thazar
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      Joined: 14.09.2009 Posts: 6,560
      yes i believe it is a lot more complicated than that to calculate the chance of having a bad beat but more important is what are the chances to have it before someone else (i think).
    • RubyWesson
      RubyWesson
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      Joined: 15.08.2010 Posts: 363
      Just found this :

      Probabilities of the Major Hand Requirements

      * To beat Four of a kind 6’s or Higher: 0.0000093 or 1 in 107,527

      * To beat Four of a kind 7’s or Higher: 0.0000078 or 1 in 128,205

      * To beat Four of a kind 8’s or Higher: 0.0000064 or 1 in 156,250
    • Zheelvern
      Zheelvern
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      Joined: 29.10.2007 Posts: 704
      Originally posted by conall88
      unless your gonna be playing >60k hands/month, I doubt its even worth thinking about.
      His?


      http://www.elearnenglishlanguage.com/difficulties/youryoure.html
    • thazar
      thazar
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      Joined: 14.09.2009 Posts: 6,560
      here are the conditions of the bad beat jackpot:

      http://www.pokerheaven.com/promotions/bad-beat-jackpot/

      http://www.pokerheaven.com/terms-conditions/tandcbadbeatjackpot/


      for example:

      - The losing hand must contain Four of a Kind Tens, or better to qualify.

      - The best hand for both the winner and the loser must include their two hole cards.

      anyway have a look :)
    • RubyWesson
      RubyWesson
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      Joined: 15.08.2010 Posts: 363
      Will do playing a session atm ill check it in a while
    • conall88
      conall88
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      Joined: 02.01.2009 Posts: 1,715
      my point was, what is the point of chasing an extremely small possibility if you aren't going to play a massive sample.
    • thazar
      thazar
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      Joined: 14.09.2009 Posts: 6,560
      Originally posted by conall88
      my point was, what is the point of chasing an extremely small possibility if you aren't going to play a massive sample.
      the question is: Is it worth paying the extra rake in order to play for hte jackpot. Or rather how much does the jackpot need to be to get the right odds to play it. So it doesn't really matter if you play one hand or 60k. you either have the odds or not
    • Saruniks
      Saruniks
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      Joined: 30.08.2010 Posts: 1,213
      well, if jackpot is 1M$ and you play all possible tables non stop it should be +EV
    • thazar
      thazar
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      Joined: 14.09.2009 Posts: 6,560
      Originally posted by Saruniks
      well, if jackpot is 1M$ and you play all possible tables non stop it should be +EV

      did you calculate that? or just a guess?
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