"That's variance"

    • blackops888
      blackops888
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.04.2010 Posts: 502
      Hey guys... I'm not here to complain or something... Just wanted to know about this strange thing.

      Do you also have periods in which no matter what hands you have, you never seem to win anything? You keep getting bad hands PF, folding them and when you get a good one and raise, everyone else folds.

      When they don't fold, you don't hit the flop in any meaningful manner and have to make positional plays with c-bets or c/f a lot when OOP (especially if you play PLO like me).

      When you hit the flop well with a set, STR8, big draw or something, just like magic, no matter how many guys are in, they all fold when you bet. When they don't fold, they outdraw you on later streets.

      This pattern keeps repeating itself for thousands of hands, non-stop, and the graph of this period is not filled with bumps, ups and downs and so, but it is just a continuous fall, quite gradual, almost a straight line of small pots lost and the EV line (of course) standing way above the green line.

      When I'm playing my tables keep just topping up my initial buy-in all the time... I make a few bucks and lose them until I come back to where I started. It keeps like this for thousands and thousands of hands... I almost don't go all-in so there is not much to complain about big losses and bad beats, and this happens basically because I almost never have any hand worthy shoving. The game becomes quite boring, indeed, and I'm well aware that the feeling that we have to generate some action with marginal hands is like poison that keeps coming and going during the session.

      I know, I know... "that's variance", "keep playing as a favorite and..." bla bla bla... I know that.

      I just want to know if you also observe this strange thing every now and then in your game.

      **EDIT** Of course I forgot to mention that while you are sitting there losing 10BB pots one after another there is some insane action with fishes stacking off light, regulars getting paid off and you just sit there very tight and watching! OMFG
  • 4 replies
    • RubyWesson
      RubyWesson
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.08.2010 Posts: 363
      Hey blackops888,

      I know where your coming from, its strange how all the great hands seem to group up aswell. Like getting AA KK JJ in like 5 hands. I suppose its these patterns we notice and not so obvious patterns that we miss like how often we get 95o etc like i looked in HEM the other day and saw that i had been dealt one hand like 50% more times than anything else strange. Ive been having one of them "days" of a lot of stuff being beat. The strange thing is in a spot im usually miles ahead im actually drawing dead.

      A bit of off topic but i noticed your user name is blackops888 what console do you use to play blackops and what prestige you at?
    • PocketAcesJohn
      PocketAcesJohn
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.06.2008 Posts: 1,116
      Variance is the same for everyone.... Just LAG's have it more "extreme" than TAG's.

      There are different types of variance that are experienced and these are what you refer to as "stages".
    • purple16
      purple16
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.05.2011 Posts: 102
      Do you also have periods in which no matter what hands you have, you never seem to win anything? You keep getting bad hands PF, folding them and when you get a good one and raise, everyone else folds.


      Yes, bro :f_cry:
    • gsergiul
      gsergiul
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2010 Posts: 234
      Originally posted by PocketAcesJohn
      Variance is the same for everyone....
      This is only true if everyone played millions of hands.