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[NL20-NL50] NL25 AA v turn shove on wet board

    • Millsyuk
      Millsyuk
      Silver
      Joined: 08.06.2009 Posts: 435
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      SB ($19.25)
      BB ($19.60)
      UTG ($11.25)
      UTG+1 ($18.86)
      UTG+2 ($32.18)
      MP1 ($25)
      MP2 ($29.50)
      Hero ($52.19)
      BTN ($9.72)

      Dealt to Hero A:heart: A:club:

      fold, fold, UTG+2 calls $0.25, fold, MP2 calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.25, fold, fold, fold, fold, MP2 calls $1

      FLOP ($3.10) 8:club: 4:diamond: 7:club:

      MP2 checks, Hero bets $2.25, MP2 raises to $6, Hero calls $3.75

      TURN ($15.10) 8:club: 4:diamond: 7:club: 3:heart:

      MP2 checks, Hero bets $9, MP2 raises to $22.25 (AI), Hero folds

      MP2 wins $31.49

      Villain is 13/10/1.7 over 199 hands, plays 9/7 from MP and 13/13 from CO, WTSD 19% Check Raise 25%.

      Easy fold? I mean as played what can he have except for a set or a flopped straight or two pair with suited connectors. Only thing I can beat is KK - JJ which he would've raised pre.
  • 3 replies
    • Beseventh
      Beseventh
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.01.2010 Posts: 2,519
      For me easy fold. Consider his low WTSD and nitty stats I can imagine he some 2 pairs + sets. For what reasons you bet Turn ?
    • Millsyuk
      Millsyuk
      Silver
      Joined: 08.06.2009 Posts: 435
      Figured he would call turn with a lot of connectors that didn't hit the flop that hard, so 98, 76, 54 etc plus hands like 66 55. You're probably right though.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      don´t see why you would b/c flop and then don´t want to play stacks on the blank turn
      If I bet turn I´m not really going to fold there, since I believe he can call me down with worse hands, which means he can also likely shove these hands
      You can make point just to b/c flop, since 13/10 has more often there set than draw and if you can´t get all-in on that blank turn then you likely shouldn´t also call flop