[NL20-NL50] NL25 A6s broken table, good board v shove

    • Millsyuk
      Millsyuk
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.06.2009 Posts: 435
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      SB ($6.78)
      Hero ($24.75)
      BTN ($10)

      Dealt to Hero 6:diamond: A:diamond:

      BTN raises to $0.75, SB calls $0.65, Hero calls $0.50

      FLOP ($2.25) J:club: 5:diamond: 3:club:

      SB checks, Hero checks, BTN checks

      TURN ($2.25) J:club: 5:diamond: 3:club: 4:diamond:

      SB checks, Hero bets $1.50, BTN raises to $9.25 (AI), SB folds, Hero folds

      BTN wins $5


      Villain is 29/27/inf over 51 hands

      Do I ever have enough equity for a call here, need 37% to break even.

      Maybe best option is to make it $2 on the turn giving myself an easier call if he does this and allowing me to bet larger on the river given the strength of my draws?
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Millsyuk,

      Not really. We need ~38% equity here for break-even Call as you said yourself. But against his range:

      Board: J:club: 5:diamond: 3:club:  4:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    31.13%  30.49%   0.64% { Ad6d }
      UTG+1  68.87%  68.23%   0.64% { JJ+, 44-33, A2s, 76s, A2o, 76o }

      We most likely don't get it. Most likely we are against some kind of trap which played this way. Or got there on turn.

      Best regards.