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[NL20-NL50] NL25 AA v MP raise from nit

    • Millsyuk
      Joined: 08.06.2009 Posts: 435
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($30.40)
      BB ($25.37)
      UTG ($25.67)
      UTG+1 ($26.91)
      UTG+2 ($28.95)
      MP1 ($15.36)
      MP2 ($11)
      CO ($25)
      BTN ($13.69)

      Dealt to Hero A:club: A:diamond:

      fold, fold, UTG+2 raises to $0.75, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $2.50, fold, UTG+2 calls $1.75

      FLOP ($5.25) 5:heart: Q:club: 2:heart:

      Hero bets $3.50, UTG+2 raises to $12.49, Hero folds

      UTG+2 wins $11.66

      Villain is 13/9/2 WTSD 50, Won WSF 50 W$SD 50

      Not sure here, If I shove I need 42% to break even and doubt that he ever folds.

      If I give him a range of QQ+, 55, 22, AhQh then I have 43%

      Does he ever do this with anything else? To be honest I'm not even sure if AA and KK are in his range and can't really see anything but QQ.

  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Millsyuk,

      Preflop: Usually against 3xBB raise I do as well raise it bigger while even being OOP so 4x his raise = ~$3.
      Postflop: True that such a flop against rather passive opponent we are very often behind. Therefore I would have played very likely the same way. His raise size really indicates a very strong hand. Most likely what we beat there is something like KK but would he even play this way KK? Not sure if he even would have played AQ this way. If he does then our equity should be enough for going even broke on flop:

      Board: 5:heart: Q:club: 2:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    45.76%  43.04%   2.72% { AdAc }
      UTG+1  54.24%  51.52%   2.72% { KK-QQ, 55, 22, AhAs, AQs }

      But since KK/AA ain't that likely we might even exclude them and which will drop the equity in huge amount. So I guess I'd be inclined to go for the Bet/Fold line as well.

      Best regards.