[NL2-NL10] Nl 2 A2s OOP str8 on paired board

    • johnnyanghell
      johnnyanghell
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.05.2011 Posts: 14
      $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Holdem
      PokerStars
      6 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG ($7.97)
      UTG+1 ($0.91)
      CO ($2)
      BTN ($6.47)
      Hero (SB) ($2.22)
      BB ($1.98)

      Pre-Flop: ($0.03, 6 players) Hero is SB A:club: 2:club:
      UTG calls $0.02, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.01, BB checks

      Flop: 4:heart: 5:club: J:spade: ($0.06, 3 players)
      Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets $0.02, Hero calls $0.02, BB folds

      Turn: 3:heart: ($0.10, 2 players)
      Hero checks, UTG bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40

      River: J:diamond: ($0.90, 2 players)
      Hero checks, UTG goes all-in $7.53, Hero goes all-in $1.78

      Final Pot: $10.21
      Hero shows a straight, Ace to Five
      A:club: 2:club:
      UTG shows a full house, Threes full of Jacks
      3:club: 3:spade:

      UTG wins $9.99 (net +$2.02)

      Hero lost $2.22
      BB lost $0.02

      Villan stats: Hands 112 VPIP 55/PFR15/3bet10
      WtSD 18 W$SD 53

      This guy is pretty much of a calling station playing fit or fold poker my strategy vs him its simply to raise a lot preflop with a 15%range and cbet in pretty 90% of the flops, because since he plays fit or fold I will show an immediate profit.

      On this hand I complete the small blind, because I don't think my hand is strong enough to raise with sine he'll call with pretty much any 2 cards and I'll be OOP, but I think my implied odds are good enough to call.

      On the turn he overbets when a 3 hits, since he won't be betting this strong without a good hand here, I think he has a J in his hand, or he has a FD to go with a str8 Draw, since he can have any 2 cards, I think he might also have something like 2 pair or A3 giving him a pair and a gutshot, I don't put him on 3's J's 4's or 5's cause I think he would have raised preflop with those hands.
      Despite this I'm more inclined to J/x and on the flop he was afraid of a overcard.

      Though, you might say that his PFR would be lower when playing UTG and that he would easily limp 4's 5's or 3's, from his AtS <10% I believe he is a player that doesn't understand the value of position very well, so (wrongly as we'll see) I assume he doesn't have a pocket pair.

      Anyhow when the 3h hits I hit the nuts so I have to call/raise. I just call, cause I have a monster hand and given the fact he just overbet the pot I think I might chase him away with a raise and by just calling I give him a chance to bet again on the river and then raise all-in.

      On the river the J hits and pairs the board, I no longer have the nuts since I'm behind Quads and FH's I don't think he has none for what I said earlier I believe he has J/x so I call.

      What I want to know is: would he play this hand if he had a hand like J/x and since there are more combo's of J/x then 3's, in the long run it would be a profitable decision or given this type of player it would be to easy for me to put him on 3's on the turn and just fold the river?

      Once again any help would be apreciated thanks
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello johnnyanghell,

      There are just so many hands what beat us on river and therefore it really should be rather a fold. I don't expect the opponent anyways to play Jx this way. Why should he over-bet like this on turn with just Jx?

      Best regards.