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[NL2-NL10] NL2 OK to double-barrel?

    • jdnismo
      Joined: 26.07.2010 Posts: 193
      IPoker Network $2.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 1384004
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      MP1: $1.54
      Hero (MP2): $2.00
      CO: $5.20
      BTN: $3.30
      SB: $1.41
      BB: $1.19
      UTG: $4.06
      UTG+1: $0.91
      UTG+2: $4.89

      Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is MP2 with Q :club: K :spade:
      4 folds, Hero raises to $0.08, 3 folds, BB calls $0.06

      Flop: ($0.17) T :heart: J :heart: 7 :club: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.12, BB calls $0.12

      Turn: ($0.41) 4 :club: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.24, BB calls $0.24

      River: ($0.89) A :spade: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.50, BB folds

      What is your opinion on double-barreling here vs. unknown? Turn is a blank so can we continue to bet with our draw to keep pressure on our opponent?

      I tried to use pokerstove to see what range he would be calling with on the flop:

      Board: Th Jh 7c 4c

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 29.545% 25.00% 04.55% 968 176.00 { KsQc }
      Hand 1: 70.455% 65.91% 04.55% 2552 176.00 { 99-88, AhKh, AhQh, AJs-ATs, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, KcQc, KdQd, KsQs, KJs, KcTc, KdTd, KsTs, Kh9h, Kh8h, QJs, AJo-ATo, KTo+, QTo+ }

      His VPIP was ~25 so I tried to come up with an appropriate range for him for calling out of the BB.

      Since we only have 30% equity on the turn against the range of hands that call us on the flop, does that mean that he only has to fold a bit less than 1/3 of the time for this bet to be profitable?

      (0.3) * (70.455) = 21.1365

      Is this how we calculate fold equity? We add the 21.1365% on to our equity?
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello jdnismo,

      As you said yourself that the opponent has somewhat high VPIP. Which indicates that he is loose to Call. Therefore I'd really rather be inclined to Check behind while even having position on him.

      Easiest way to calculate the fold equity is:
      Pot = $0,41 and you plan to Bet = $0,24
      Fold % for Zero EV = Bet/(Bet+Pot)
      $0,24/($0,24+$0,41) = 36,92%
      If your opponent folds more than 37%, this move will be +EV.

      Hopefully it's what you were searching for. There is actually many different ways to calculate it. If you know the % then you can calculate the EV and etc stuff.

      Best regards.