[NL20-NL50] NL25SH - KK on drawy board

    • luizsilveira
      luizsilveira
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.11.2010 Posts: 2,320
      Villain is fishy 45/18 over 66 hands. Fold 0% to cbet (small sample), no check-raises yet. Donk flop 7 out of 8 times, donk/fold only once, AF of 3.75.

      $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

      SB: $34.52
      Hero (BB): $25.70
      UTG: $9.84
      MP: $26.82
      CO: $39.26
      BTN: $35.42

      SB posts SB $0.10, Hero posts BB $0.25

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has K:spade: K:diamond:

      fold, MP raises to $0.75, fold, BTN calls $0.75, SB calls $0.65, Hero raises to $3.75, fold, fold, SB calls $3.00

      Flop: ($9.00, 2 players) 9:club: 7:diamond: T:club:
      SB checks, Hero bets $5.75, SB raises to $30.77 and is all-in, Hero is in good or bad shape?

      My thoughts:

      1) his raise is weird for being a shove, so that doesn't represent much. I don't think he would be shoving with a set but rather raising it to shove any turn. But of course I can be very wrong;

      2) but if he has draws I'm only slightly ahead - and may even be behind combo draws.



      So... it's almost a slightly ahead/way behind situation; I'm either way behind sets and two pairs or slightly ahead draws. The only range I beat is JJ-QQ, which he might play like this indeed.

      In the end it seems ridiculously weak to fold KK overpair in this spot after 3betting big and cbetting. But calling seems a bit stupid, that's an awful spot for him to pure bluff.
  • 5 replies
    • Gabinr1
      Gabinr1
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.04.2009 Posts: 7,755
      Call and smile. A fish is capable of doing this with A9s = his range is weak.

      You get pott odds of 33.2% (for the call). So even if you win just half the time, you are money =) And I think that's the case with this call.
    • luizsilveira
      luizsilveira
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.11.2010 Posts: 2,320
      Originally posted by Gabinr1
      A fish is capable of doing this with A9s.
      Now that is properly true.
    • Bierbaer
      Bierbaer
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2005 Posts: 7,989
      It is kind of close.
      Bu we only need to bring 21 for a pot of 50, so eoughly 40% equity.

      As Gabinr1 said he can have all kinds of stuff in his range.
      Even if you put it to 77+, some strong FDs (i.e. FD+overs+GS) and only add ATs as worse 1pair-hand, we have:

      Board: 9:spade: T:club: 7:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    61.04%  59.49%   1.55% { 77+, ATs, AcQc, KcQc, AcJc, KcJc, QcJc, Ac8c, Ac7c }
      MP3    38.96%  37.42%   1.55% { JJ }


      So if he ever shows up with more Tx or lower FDs or other stuff he has in his wide range, we have a +EV call.
    • Gabinr1
      Gabinr1
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.04.2009 Posts: 7,755
      Originally posted by Bierbaer
      we have:

      Board: 9:club: 7:diamond: T:club:
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 51.79% 49.68% 2.11% { 77+, ATs, AcQc, KcQc, AcJc, KcJc, QcJc, Ac8c, Ac7c }
      MP3 48.21% 46.10% 2.11% { KdKs }


      So if he ever shows up with more Tx or lower FDs or other stuff he has in his wide range, we have a +EV call.
      FYP

      @bierbaer,

      Bu we only need to bring 21 for a pot of 50, so eoughly 40% equity.
      It's not 21 in a pot of 50. This is a squeezed pot, from a $25.7 starting stack, we remain after the cbet with only $16.2 to win a pot of 51.4*0.95= 48.83.

      So pot odds are exactly 33.2%.

      =)
    • luizsilveira
      luizsilveira
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.11.2010 Posts: 2,320
      Weird... I thought you guys were forgetting combo draws but they don't change much. Why is that?! Too small a part of range?


      Player 1: 52.207 77+, AcQc, AcJc, ATs, Ac8c, Ac7c, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, 8c7c, 7c6c

      Player 2: 47.793 KsKd


      Equity Win Tie Loss
      Player 1: 52.207 % 50.152 % 4.111 % 45.738 %
      77+, AcQc, AcJc, ATs, Ac8c, Ac7c, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, 8c7c, 7c6c

      Player 2: 47.793 % 45.738 % 4.111 % 50.152 %
      KsKd


      In fact, I did call but was surprised I was so behind of a FD+lowpair+1 overcard.

      Hero shows K:spade: K:diamond: (One Pair, Kings) (PreFlop 82%, Flop 42%, Turn 61%)
      SB shows 7:club: J:club: (One Pair, Sevens) (PreFlop 18%, Flop 58%, Turn 39%)
      SB wins $0.00
      Hero wins $50.26

      And pokertracker shows shove pot odds of 2.27:1.

      On the side of all that, do you think there is any other way to play the hand?

      edit: on a side side note, you gotta love'm for calling a big squeeze with J7s.