"awesome" month

    • deathult
      Joined: 03.06.2010 Posts: 26

      Here is my graph for 9 man turbo SNG's at poker stars for this month. Mostly 15$ mixed with some 7$.

      Please choose an answer:

      1. It is rigged. :f_biggrin:
      2. I suck badly. ?(

      Talking seriously, can someone tell if these downswing are common at these limits? Also every advice, how to overcome these swing without losing confidence in my game, would be great. By the way my ROI after 1.5k games is 0%, while EV adjusted ROI is 4% :(
  • 5 replies
    • madison79
      Joined: 06.06.2011 Posts: 63
      It's not uncommon for sure. Make sure your looking over your games and thinking about spots that were close. Cheers
    • MatejM47
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,193
      50 BI bellow EV over 500 games is pretty standard variance for 9max SNGS, and no variance has nothing to do with what limit your playing, equity is equity and you get sucked out just as often in 100$ sngs as in 1$ sngs.

      If you can't handle this type of variance you might want to consider some lower variance game like FR cash games.
    • pzhon
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      After 1500 games, you still don't have a good idea what your ROI is. You can say some things about what your ROI probably isn't, but you haven't pinned down your win rate. A rough 95% confidence interval for your expected ROI after n 9-player STTs is your observed ROI +- 310%/squareroot(n). If n=1500, that is about your observed ROI +- 8%, which means it's not a big surprise to run up to 8% above or 8% below your true ROI in 1500 tournaments.

      The all-in luck adjustment removes a little more than half of the variance in turbo SNGs (and more like 70% in super turbos). This means in your next 500 tournaments, it isn't a big surprise to see up to about a 10% ROI difference between your red line and green line, or between your red line and your true ROI.

      You are right on the border of the +- 10% interval, but you are looking backwards. There are many opportunities to observe streaks of good luck or bad when you look backwards, which makes them much less rare. If you can predict that you will toss a coin and get heads on the next 7 tosses, that would be remarkable, and it would be evidence that you can control the coin toss or the coin isn't fair. However, if you toss a coin 100 times, it's pretty likely that at some point, you can look backwards and say there was a streak of 7 heads. It's even more common if you weren't looking for only heads, and would also point out if you get a streak of 7 tails in a row, as in the other recent thread where someone points out that he ran ahead of expectation for a few hundred SNGs. In order for a past streak to be remarkable, it shouldn't be something that happens 1 time in 20 when you look forward, it might need to be 1 in 1000, or even more extreme if you play for a long time.

      After a streak of bad luck, don't assume the cards owe you anything. Cards have no memory, and it's quite possible to drop another 50 buy-ins. If your play is solid and the games are good, you will pull out eventually, but don't count on snapping back quickly, even though when you look backwards you will sometimes see periods of good luck after bad streaks. You can see those because when you have bad luck following bad, you simply combine the two into one bigger streak of bad luck.
    • deathult
      Joined: 03.06.2010 Posts: 26
      Thanks for answers! :)
    • Akcus
      Joined: 22.12.2009 Posts: 156
      #1 > #2