[NL2-NL10] NL2 FR 77 - Set vs AI

    • cpers
      cpers
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.04.2011 Posts: 563
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      BB:
      $1.8
      Hero:
      $2.51
      MP3:
      $3.08

      0.01/0.02 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy.com Elephant 0.102 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 7:spade: , 7:club:
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.08, MP2 folds, MP3 calls $0.08, 3 folds, BB calls $0.06.

      Flop: ($0.25) J:heart: , 7:heart: , 2:heart: (3 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.64, MP3 raises to $3.00 (All-In), BB folds

      Results follow (highlight to see):
      Hero shows (7s 7c)
      MP3 shows three-of-a-kind, jacks (Js Jd)

      MP3 wins with three-of-a-kind, jacks (Js Jd)

      Hi there,

      I plan to protect my set against flush here, then he goes AI.
      Since I put him on flush, so I got 7 outs to beat his flush on the turn.
      And another 3 outs for the river if I didn't hit anything.
      If my calculation's correct I got 0.28 for the 7 outs and 0.05 for the 3 runner runner outs.
      Can I fold here? There's also the possibilty his having a higher set.

      thanks,
      cpers
  • 8 replies
    • cpers
      cpers
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.04.2011 Posts: 563
      I guess I can call here. It looks similar to elhh82 's hand


      Board: J:heart: 7:heart: 2:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    77.54%  75.91%   1.63% { 77 }
      UTG+1  22.46%  20.83%   1.63% { JJ+, ATs+, KJs+, QJs }
    • keoghh
      keoghh
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.07.2011 Posts: 857
      Hey, dont really like your overbet on the flop, imo i think you should bet ~0.18. Also im not really scared that hes flopped a flush because the chances of flopping a flush are something like 118:1. Not sure hes shoving with air though, but still tough hand to get away from.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello cpers,

      First all I'd mention that why do you over-bet the flop? Rather do a normal bet size. But as played you went for maximum value and still you decide to fold. For me it's a Call, I am not folding. He may as well even have worse set/overpairs/pair+FD or whatsoever hands.

      Best regards.
    • cpers
      cpers
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.04.2011 Posts: 563
      @veriz
      About the flop, aren't we supposed to protect our hands against flushes here?
      Or my action is okay but not the size of the bet, maybe 3/4 of the pot is sufficient to protect our hand?

      No I didn't fold I just delete the turn and river cause it's AI situation, I call this hand and go broke to a higher set.
      You could highlight the result to see the outcome.

      @keoghh
      thanks a lot for the info about the chances of flopping a flush.
      now I got a reason not to be scared too :)
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      About the flop, aren't we supposed to protect our hands against flushes here?

      Of course we have to protect but it doesn't mean that we have to make it 3x pot. The problem with making such a huge overbet is that you are exactly saying that you have a VERY STRONG hand and you wont get called by a lot worse hands.
    • keoghh
      keoghh
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.07.2011 Posts: 857
      No probs mate, glad to help as im still learning myself.
    • cpers
      cpers
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.04.2011 Posts: 563
      I guess I misunderstood the article.
      One more thing if BB dB 2/3, and I decide to protect my hand what's the proper size? Is 2x BB's bets enough?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by cpers
      I guess I misunderstood the article.
      One more thing if BB dB 2/3, and I decide to protect my hand what's the proper size? Is 2x BB's bets enough?
      Nope, 3x his bet + pot which = pot size. So something in between that.