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[NL20-NL50] NL25SH - 88 mid set, board gets ugly and villain shoves

    • luizsilveira
      Joined: 27.11.2010 Posts: 2,320
      Villain is quite passive, that’s one thing to consider. I only have 320 hands on him, but he plays 31/16 with an overall aggression factor of 0.79. His cbet on the flop is very strange; I think it could mean either a donkish way to play a draw or a VERY passive guy trying to be aggressive with a monster. His cbet flop is 58% but I didn’t catch any size tells so far (maybe I could by reviewing the database).

      $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

      BB: $28.66
      UTG: $24.95
      MP: $28.59
      CO: $25.00
      Hero (BTN): $28.46
      SB: $53.52

      SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has 8:club: 8:spade:

      fold, MP raises to $1.00, fold, Hero calls $1.00, fold, fold

      Flop: ($2.35, 2 players) T:diamond: 8:heart: 7:diamond:
      MP bets $0.75, Hero raises to $2.50, MP calls $1.75

      I don’t think I have a choice but to raise flop. I raised almost pot, but even so I now think it was small. If he has air, he will fold either way, if he has a monster we are both going broke anyway, and if he wants to play his draws I want him to pay for them.

      The problem is: his LP PFR is 20%. Not thaaaat many draws in his range to be honest, except of course diamond Ax or broadways. I don’t expect him to have many straight/combo draws on that board, except some 99.

      Turn: ($7.35, 2 players) 3:spade:
      MP checks, Hero bets $5.00, MP calls $5.00

      He calls and checks, again my bet is not exactly big. He has shown interest for the pot by calling the raise, I could have bet some 6, 6.50 or even pot there since my hand is still very, very strong – even having outs vs. a made straight. 3 or 8 of diamonds would be a dream of course :D

      River: ($17.35, 2 players) J:spade:
      MP bets $20.09 and is all-in, Hero asks for an extended time bank and tanks, tanks, tanks…..

      Now… on this river… the shove… not much sense. I can’t see a reason why a passive guy would take this line with, say, QQ. Yes, he is very passive, so he *maybe* would not go broke on turn, but then overshoving river makes no sense. Maybe he does not want to check/call with a medium hand (which is QQ comparing to the board), but then I would more often than not expect a bet/fold – hard with that potsize but still possible. Mind that from the start we are a bit deep.

      If he as a regular/aggressive opponent I think it’s a snap call, even though it might be close. But against this super passive phellah it might be the case to fold this one and let go my $8.50 invested in the pot to save another $20.

      If it is true that he has JT in his range, I don’t expect him to cbet that size on the flop with JT. So it looks a way more like 99 or T9 (98 still possible but I thing every time less likely considering PFR range).

      Odds are 1.87:1 to call.

      Any thoughts?
  • 1 reply
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I think you can´t really call his shove, since he is reping exactly 9x and overbet shoves are mostly for value and almost never for bluffs.
      If pot would bigger I´d likely call his shove getting better pot odds