Casino EV/maths question

    • Jan217
      Jan217
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      Joined: 02.01.2009 Posts: 626
      So it seems I have a 60$ casino bonus with playersonly, which clears at a rate of 20x rollover, so if I wager 1$ I clear $0.05 of the bonus.

      My question is, is there a casino game I can play (in any specific way) that while this bonus clears will be +EV to play? I know there are some games where the houses edge is very small, but is it small enough that this bonus brings the edge in my favour?

      Cheers for any assistance! :f_biggrin:
  • 18 replies
    • Wacko118
      Wacko118
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      Joined: 21.06.2009 Posts: 300
      Could you not go on a roulette table and bet on everything? so you are guaranteed your money back whichever number or colour comes down? Or almost your money back at least.

      I also believe that just putting the minimum on black jack never more and just keep playing that you will end up fairly break even...
    • ytsoP
      ytsoP
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      Joined: 15.07.2011 Posts: 85
      Originally posted by Wacko118
      Could you not go on a roulette table and bet on everything? so you are guaranteed your money back whichever number or colour comes down? Or almost your money back at least.

      I also believe that just putting the minimum on black jack never more and just keep playing that you will end up fairly break even...
      You don't get the right odds if you bet on every number. Say if there's 41 numbers, you only get 39/1. I'm not sure if you can bet on both red and black though.
    • fractalsonfire
      fractalsonfire
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      Joined: 01.02.2011 Posts: 140
      Even if you bet on red and black at the same time, there are still the 0 and 00 to deal with, which isn't exactly 50/50. Roulette is a horrible game to play as the house edge will just take everything in the long run.

      Unless you have some sort of hax system which 100% foolproof. LOL yeah right.
    • thazar
      thazar
      Silver
      Joined: 14.09.2009 Posts: 6,561
      Originally posted by Wacko118
      Could you not go on a roulette table and bet on everything? so you are guaranteed your money back whichever number or colour comes down? Or almost your money back at least.

      I also believe that just putting the minimum on black jack never more and just keep playing that you will end up fairly break even...
      Well first let me say that this is PokerStrategy and not RouletteStrategy :f_biggrin:

      roulette, as other casino games, is a game where the house has an edge and the odds are on their side and against you. The edge is not big but it is there so that in the long run the punter is bound to lose money and the house is bound to earn $$$.

      So if you were to bet on every number (not even sure if it is allowed) you will be bound to lose money on every roll as your return will be less than the money spent on the one roll.

      Regards

      Thazar
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
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      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,150
      roulette, as other casino games, is a game where the house has an edge and the odds are on their side and against you. The edge is not big but it is there so that in the long run the punter is bound to lose money and the house is bound to earn $$$. So if you were to bet on every number (not even sure if it is allowed) you will be bound to lose money on every roll as your return will be less than the money spent on the one roll.


      As I understood he knows that. But he wnats to know if he gets a bonus from the casino, is it possible to make a profit even not having an edge against lets say roulette. In other words - how much will he loose on average while clearing the bonus by playing roulette? And if he looses less, than the ammount of bonus, then it is plus EV :)

      and its interesting, it would be cool to beat those thieves casinos :)
    • ZhiCheng
      ZhiCheng
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      Joined: 04.10.2008 Posts: 2,294
      u can play BJ close to 0EV;)
    • PocketAcesJohn
      PocketAcesJohn
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      Joined: 19.06.2008 Posts: 1,116
      No money in Casino games......Everyones solid!
    • caledonia
      caledonia
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      Joined: 31.07.2011 Posts: 18
      in a casino the house edge is lower on blackjack and your best chance,on roulette you could try betting red if you lose double up and try again(a bit risky and theres the table limits)good luck with your bonus... :D
    • amplifyd
      amplifyd
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      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 1,769
      From here you should be able to make around 4.4c for every $ you wager if you play blackjack - assuming the info on that website is true.
    • Steelbrewer
      Steelbrewer
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      Joined: 22.04.2009 Posts: 580
      You can bet 1 on red:

      if you win bet 1 on black

      if you lose bet 2 on red - 1) if you win bet 1 on black
      2) if you lose bet 4 on red

      And so on you will be getting 1 everytime you win (regardles of what amount you posted).

      Unfortunately most casinos don't allow to bet on the same color more than certain amount of times, or have an upper limit (let say 1-2-4-8-16-32 and 32 is a limit) for a bet which kinda nullifies this winning strategy + there are those 0 and 00.

      PS. you can do the same with even/odd or 1-19/19-36.
    • i5bet72o
      i5bet72o
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      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,615
      btw martingale strategy is retarted
    • lynius
      lynius
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      Joined: 15.01.2011 Posts: 382
      Bet on every number. Go for a European table without a double 0.
      $1 on every number means you will lose a $1 per spin, yet unlock 37*0.05 which is 1.85. Profit per spin - 85 cents. Spin about 80 times and you're done.
    • vmarqui
      vmarqui
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      Joined: 25.01.2010 Posts: 4,816
      Originally posted by Steelbrewer
      You can bet 1 on red:

      if you win bet 1 on black

      if you lose bet 2 on red - 1) if you win bet 1 on black
      2) if you lose bet 4 on red

      And so on you will be getting 1 everytime you win (regardles of what amount you posted).

      Unfortunately most casinos don't allow to bet on the same color more than certain amount of times, or have an upper limit (let say 1-2-4-8-16-32 and 32 is a limit) for a bet which kinda nullifies this winning strategy + there are those 0 and 00.

      PS. you can do the same with even/odd or 1-19/19-36.

      that's really stupid
    • Saruniks
      Saruniks
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      Joined: 30.08.2010 Posts: 1,213
      go on roulette, put everything on Red, if you win, keep clearing bonus even with -EV, if you lose it wasn't worth anyway.
    • furculision
      furculision
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      Joined: 25.03.2011 Posts: 474
      Originally posted by Saruniks
      go on roulette, put everything on Red, if you win, keep clearing bonus even with -EV, if you lose it wasn't worth anyway.
      lol
    • chenny8888
      chenny8888
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      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324
      so you need a game that's <5% house edge. european roulette (1 zero) is one such game. to reduce variance you can try to bet on all the outcomes. some sites won't let you do this though. roulettes with 2 0s are unbeatable as this is >5% house edge. not sure about blackjack as there are many differing rule systems for this.
    • Jan217
      Jan217
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      Joined: 02.01.2009 Posts: 626
      Originally posted by lynius
      Bet on every number. Go for a European table without a double 0.
      $1 on every number means you will lose a $1 per spin, yet unlock 37*0.05 which is 1.85. Profit per spin - 85 cents. Spin about 80 times and you're done.
      This looks like a good shout, time to gain about 27$ of free (EV) monies :]
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
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      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,315
      A lot of casino have steeper roll-over if you play certain games like roulette so make sure you check terms+conditions. (Afaik roulette does not even count towards wagering requirement for some bonuses at playersonly) There is no casino game that will be +EV for you, whatever strategy you play, so you are going to need to get lucky.

      To increase the likelihood of clearing your bonus it makes sense (imo) to play the highest variance games possible. I recommend slots or maybe scratchcards, for the potential high return on low wager.

      This is just what I'd do though, whatever you do will be -EV.

      EDIT: Although, if you are playing with a free bonus, it will be +EV anyway, 0 chance of losing money, small chance of making money.