[NL20-NL50] Nl25 Sh Kt

    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,068
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($27.27)
      BB ($31.90)
      UTG ($25)
      UTG+1 ($24.83)
      CO ($46.46)
      BTN ($25)

      Dealt to Hero K:diamond: T:heart:

      fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, CO calls $0.25, fold, Hero calls $0.15, BB checks

      FLOP ($1) 2:diamond: 9:diamond: T:club:

      Hero bets $0.75, BB folds, UTG+1 calls $0.75, CO folds

      TURN ($2.50) 2:diamond: 9:diamond: T:club: 4:club:

      Hero bets $1.66, UTG+1 calls $1.66

      RIVER ($5.82) 2:diamond: 9:diamond: T:club: 4:club: K:spade:

      Hero bets $4.36, UTG+1 raises to $9, Hero calls $4.64

      35/12/1.3 26 hands

      River - can I find a fold with my top two pair? I need to win 20 % of the time. He may have slowplayed his lower two pair and decided to raise now, or he may have hit his weaker two pair. But of course he could have hit straight, or have slowplayed set.
  • 12 replies
    • Wriggers
      Wriggers
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,250
      Meh, i'm not getting away from that when you have to be ahead such a little percentage of the time. As you said, he could have a lower 2 pair, or even a busted straight/flush draw that he's turning into a bluff. Also, due to the limp in preflop, when he has raised often(ish) pre before you can rule out 99, TT+ imo, so the only sets he realistically has are 22 and 44.
    • Gabinr1
      Gabinr1
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.04.2009 Posts: 7,755
      The only weakr hand that I see raising the river is 2paired K9. I don't think villain will slowplay T9 on this board (but you sometimes see it), so K9 is the only reasonable weaker hand (and K2s).

      Let's find out if it's profitable or not to call:

      We have pot odds of 20.6% - So this is how often we need to be good to be at least breakeven.



      Board: 2:diamond: 9:diamond: T:club:  4:club:  K:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    20.01%  20.01%   0.00% { KdTh }
      MP3    79.99%  79.99%   0.00% { K9s, K2s, QJs, QJo }
      Against this range we are losing ~BE.




      Board: 2:diamond: 9:diamond: T:club:  4:club:  K:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    18.52%  18.52%   0.00% { KdTh }
      MP3    81.48%  81.48%   0.00% { 99, 22, K9s, K2s, QJs, T9s, QJo }
      If we add slowplayed sets and 2pair, this is what we get.


      With that said, the call is not profitable - unless you have a note/read on villain that says he is capable of making small raise bluffs in this kind of spots. Also when a fish raises as a bluff, he usually goes all in or makes a bigger raise, even thought he might be a fish, he knows intuitively that a small raise has bigger chances of being called (smaller Fold Equity)


      Conclusion: Fold to the raise.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by Wriggers
      Meh, i'm not getting away from that when you have to be ahead such a little percentage of the time. As you said, he could have a lower 2 pair, or even a busted straight/flush draw that he's turning into a bluff. Also, due to the limp in preflop, when he has raised often(ish) pre before you can rule out 99, TT+ imo, so the only sets he realistically has are 22 and 44.
      +1
      not folding river top two pair against random player who limps utg
    • Wriggers
      Wriggers
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,250
      Originally posted by Gabinr1
      The only weakr hand that I see raising the river is 2paired K9. I don't think villain will slowplay T9 on this board (but you sometimes see it), so K9 is the only reasonable weaker hand (and K2s).

      Let's find out if it's profitable or not to call:

      We have pot odds of 20.6% - So this is how often we need to be good to be at least breakeven.



      Board: 2:diamond: 9:diamond: T:club:  4:club:  K:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    20.01%  20.01%   0.00% { KdTh }
      MP3    79.99%  79.99%   0.00% { K9s, K2s, QJs, QJo }
      Against this range we are losing ~BE.




      Board: 2:diamond: 9:diamond: T:club:  4:club:  K:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    18.52%  18.52%   0.00% { KdTh }
      MP3    81.48%  81.48%   0.00% { 99, 22, K9s, K2s, QJs, T9s, QJo }
      If we add slowplayed sets and 2pair, this is what we get.


      With that said, the call is not profitable - unless you have a note/read on villain that says he is capable of making small raise bluffs in this kind of spots. Also when a fish raises as a bluff, he usually goes all in or makes a bigger raise, even thought he might be a fish, he knows intuitively that a small raise has bigger chances of being called (smaller Fold Equity)


      Conclusion: Fold to the raise.
      I've seen many a fish try to bluff pure air down 3 streets by minbetting flop, turn and river. Usually I find it's the other way around, smaller raises and bets on the river are a lot more likely to be bluffs in my experience, whereas overbets and pot sized raises are more likely to be value from the nuts, because they seem to panic that they only have that street to get value from it.

      I disagree that the only 2 pairs he can have are K9 and K2s, as we've just seen him limp UTG and he has shitty stats, he can have anything. 9T, T4s, T2s, 24s, Kd4d. 9/2x with a busted turned flush draw that he's turning into a bluff on the river. There are loads of hands he could be bluff/thin value raising on the river that we beat.
    • Gabinr1
      Gabinr1
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      Joined: 05.04.2009 Posts: 7,755
      Villain is 35/12/1.3 26 hands. This is why I tend not to put T4s, T2s in his range, because I expect someone that would limp with this hands to play something like 50+ vpip.

      I also think that villain would raise 2pairs or sets on the flop or turn.


      If villain ever plays T4s, T2s and doesn't raise 2pair and sets till river, then we have a profitable call. If he doesn't we don't.


      @raise size, interesting, maybe fish on 888 are different than on stars =) , well there are situations and situations.
    • Wriggers
      Wriggers
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      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,250
      I don't know which site you play on, but i've found this bet sizing tell happens on 888 a lot, and IIRC I did see the fish on Stars do it occasionally as well. Let's remember just how close that original call/fold was with your equity analysis, it was pretty much B/E or very slightly losing. If we just add one shitty UTG limp with trash that hit 2 pair, we have a profitable call. If we add just one missed draw turned into a spew, profitable call. So whilst it's close on the surface if you just use made hands, take into account missed draws that know the only way to win the hand on the river is by bluffing, I think the call is profitable.
    • Gabinr1
      Gabinr1
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      Joined: 05.04.2009 Posts: 7,755
      1. What we can assume about fish? They play loose, they play passive. So when an unknown probable fish raises the turn we can assume he has a made hand, QJ, K9s - we can't assume he will bluff, we don't know that and is just bad to believe that with no history/read. Also, the most probable thing is that villain would have raised T9 and sets or other 2pair on the flop or turn.

      2. Our call, in the most probable view is -EV (close to BE). Our call in the most optimistic view is +EV (close to BE) , when villain also bluffs from time to tine (we don't know that and I say it's foolish to assume it till we see he is capable of such a thing) and slowplays till the river sets and 2pair on draw-heavy boards.


      With that said, we can take the gamble an call, but doing so will only lead in variance with a probable slightly loss longterm. Better keep the call for when we have some more info about villain (that he is capable of playing way more loosely, capable of bluffs and that he is passive on the flop and turn with 2pair+ on drawy boards).
    • Gabinr1
      Gabinr1
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      Joined: 05.04.2009 Posts: 7,755
      This is how I view it. If it's close, fold.

      We achieve 2 things with a fold:
      1. We cut variance, winrate stays the same.
      2. We feel better by making a disciplined fold, so we play better. Also, if we call and we aren't right there's potential for tilting.
    • Wriggers
      Wriggers
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      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,250
      I guess we'll have to agree to disagree, I think that it's so close to BE that it doesn't matter what we do here, but you say it's foolish to assume he is capable of bluff raising, I think to assume he's incapable of spewing after his combo draw missed, for example, is foolish. As we can see he's not a great player, and even great players are capable of spew. Even if we add a few bluffs in half of the time I think this is still +EV.

      But again, it's so close it obviously won't affect your winrate much, so I guess it comes down to whether your personality is risk avert or not.
    • Gabinr1
      Gabinr1
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      Joined: 05.04.2009 Posts: 7,755
      If it's BE then risk aversion doesn't have much to do with it. If you think it's +EV calling is good, if you think it's -EV then it's not - given the info and experience that you've got. Being risk avert means folding in a profitable +EV spot to cut out variance, I'm not saying we should do that, I just think this is a -EV spot with the info that we got, but of course this is poker so nothing is certain.

      I'm curios to see what an other judge would say about this hand.


      PS: when I first saw the hand I thought briefly and came to the conclusion that it's an easy call having that small of amount to call, just after I made the analysis I came to this conclusion that I'm supporting now.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,068
      With that said, we can take the gamble an call, but doing so will only lead in variance with a probable slightly loss longterm. Better keep the call for when we have some more info about villain (that he is capable of playing way more loosely, capable of bluffs and that he is passive on the flop and turn with 2pair+ on drawy boards).


      Call has one more advantage I think - we see his cards and if we see a bluff, we start knowing his line earlier, make a note.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
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      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      even if it is close you should generally b/c against min-raise, since if villain knows you´re b/f river top two pair, then he should turn his hand for bluff every single time and min-raise you, since you´re folding 90% of your river valuebetting range