This is frustrating

    • NenadNacevic
      Joined: 20.02.2009 Posts: 101
      A quick rant here.
      I'm a winning player on DoNs (6-handed) on Merge network, and in the last 350 games I had like the silliest downswing I have ever seen.

      Here's the graph before July the 1st:

      and here's the one after:

      You know the story. Like 50% of my KK's got beaten by Ax, or lower pair, or hell even J-crap (suited!) on several occasions.

      I got Jacks -> Someone got kings.
      I got AQ -> Someone have AK.
      I got Aces -> Someone calls with 6Ts and wins.

      Over and over again. (Remember: This is 6-handed, very important)

      It's like half of my JJ+ AQ+ gets dominated or matched.

      Flips? First, I was never flipping this much as on these past few days.
      I got JJ in SB - he got AK in BB. I get AQ on button - he have a pair.
      OK so, how about winning those flips? Isn't more then 25% from like hundreds and hundreds of those (that's literally - I'm not making stuff up).

      I must admit, I had my share of luck at start, was even 14% ROI till game 2000. So I had some normal downswings which brought me to 9% ROI (which I feel is realistic).
      And YES I did go up to 5's, but I already played around thousand of 3's and some 5's before that. Besides, 5's are just a bit harder then 3's - they are not "from 9% to minus 15% ROI" harder.

      Ah yeah, as a cherry on the dung cake I received, I had my connection cut off today as well while 10-tabling.

      Actually I don't feel as crappy anymore.
      Rant over.

      PS: I ran this situation in ROI simulator and this can happen in like 1 in 1000 for SnG's. I suppose it's way less for DoN's.

  • 6 replies
    • NenadNacevic
      Joined: 20.02.2009 Posts: 101
      I just noticed that you can't really see how steep that downswing part is, so here is the whole picture:

      Didn't want to put it in the OP because it's too big as it is.

    • NenadNacevic
      Joined: 20.02.2009 Posts: 101
      I thankfully didn't tilt and got this going:

      Played several tourneys and I guess my bad luck stopped:
      4th from 224 in 5$ R (223$ profit)
      8th from 329 in 4$ R (90$ profit)
      and a couple of 20-ish places

      There was one guy who spent like 60$ on that 5$ one, donating me like 10 of his stacks :s_o:

      Could have been way better though - was dominating 1 of those which I ended 20th but lost AK vs AT, AK vs AQ then QQ vs KJ - which decimated my stack and barely ended in the money.

      anyway, 1 fun hand for the end of this post (6-handed):

      PS: I said that downswing started at 1st July and it was 1st August. Oops.

      Joined: 27.09.2009 Posts: 21,918
      Originally posted by NenadNacevic
      I thankfully didn't tilt and got this going:
      That is what we like to hear :)

      Well done and keep up the run good :)

    • matel17
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 1,278
      haha cool update ;) well done
    • NenadNacevic
      Joined: 20.02.2009 Posts: 101
      Last 45 days were just horrible. At around 35 of those I ran terrible.

      I did some examination on a typical downswing day. I went through every all in I was involved in and this is what I got (from 10 examined days out of those 35 - but I didn't take the worst ones of coarse, that would be biased):

      Average All-Ins per day: 168
      Average chance of winning a hand: 56.4%
      Average % of hands won per day: 51.7%

      So every bad day I had (35 out of 45) I won approx 8 All-Ins less then I should have.
      Which could mean around 4-5 DoN's wins less per day at least, but it depends.

      So after I subtract "the good days" I'd estimate being around 200-250 BI under EV.

      Here's the graph after 10th of August:

      This drop's just silly lol

      Anyways, it seems I'm only running bad at 5s, but good on 2s and I guess I'll just keep grinding those until I have enough to go play some SnG's on Stars.

      Fun Fact: If I combine all my poker carrier (which is around 30k-35k DoNs/SnGs) I'm around 500-600 BI under EV so far.

      There are 250 proven with HEM playing SnGs, and another 250-350 on DoNs roughly estimated by me (might be wrong for DoNs tho, I wish I had some program to graph it - maybe PT4 will be able to do that)

      PS: There's one good thing that came out of all of this tho, It's impossible for me to tilt anymore.

    • EasyOnEAS
      Joined: 16.08.2010 Posts: 59
      Well, that seems random enough. About what we could expect if you played equally good all the time, vs equally good opponents.

      And why would only run bad at 5s and good on the others? That makes no sense. Play some more and see if the pattern will continue.