About odds

    • matel17
      matel17
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 1,278
      When we flop a flush draw, why do we assume that we have 9 outs? On a full table it's very much probable that some of our outs are dead - given out as the other players' hands. We play for the long run, so shouldn't we assume that about 25% of the cards given out belong to the suite we require?

      of course this applies to all other draws
  • 5 replies
    • Zareos
      Zareos
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.05.2009 Posts: 240
      I know I'm a mere bronze so I shouldn't speak out of rank...

      But is what you're alluding to not what comes under "discounted outs"? It's in the Bronze SSS article on odds and outs. I've struggled to get my head fully around it but as I've just started today on that topic...
    • matel17
      matel17
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 1,278
      Cool thanks, I never came across that
    • thazar
      thazar
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.09.2009 Posts: 6,560
      Hi Matel

      No they are not the discounted out. They you count your outs you count the cards that could make your draw. so if you have a Flush draw for example you have 9 outs. It doesn't matter what the cards of the others are because they are unknown.

      So let's say the Flop has come and you have a FD, so there are 5 cards that you know so that's 9 outs and there are still 47 unknown cards (you know only your 2 cards and the 3 community cards)

      Discounted outs are the cards that complete your draw but do not give you the best hand. so for example you have an OESD (8 outs) but there is also a possible Flush draw and it is quite likely given your reads that villain could have it. You have to discount 2 outs because they do not give you the best hand. so that leaves you with 6 outs.

      I hope it makes things a bit clearer

      Regards

      Thazar
    • fryandspicy
      fryandspicy
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2010 Posts: 440
      If you discount the cards our opponents may hold that are of the desired suit you have to also discount the cards our opponents may hold that are of a different suit so it works out the same anyway. But that's a pretty illogical way to approach it as in fact you have no idea what they hold. :f_grin:
    • Zareos
      Zareos
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.05.2009 Posts: 240
      Originally posted by fryandspicy
      If you discount the cards our opponents may hold that are of the desired suit you have to also discount the cards our opponents may hold that are of a different suit so it works out the same anyway. But that's a pretty illogical way to approach it as in fact you have no idea what they hold. :f_grin:
      My thoughts exactly... the only time you get to see their hands without folding is when you're all in, which by then it'll be too late to get out of the hand.