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[NL20-NL50] NL50 SH - QJ meh

    • tcs35
      Joined: 31.01.2009 Posts: 3,583
      shortstack = fish not worried about him

      other guy is a reg 23/19/4
      3bet 8%
      fcb 56%

      i would expect him to 3bet AK, sometimes TT to isolate the fish. any ideas?

      $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Holdem
      6 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by

      UTG ($7.75)
      Hero (UTG+1) ($56.85)
      CO ($50)
      BTN ($90.10)
      SB ($50.95)
      BB ($83)

      Pre-Flop: ($0.75, 6 players) Hero is UTG+1 Q:diamond: J:heart:
      UTG calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.50, CO calls $2.50, 3 folds, UTG calls $2

      Flop: Q:heart: 10:spade: J:club: ($8.25, 3 players)
      UTG bets $2.50, Hero raises to $6, CO raises to $17.05, UTG goes all-in $2.75, $11.05 to Hero ($48.35)?
  • 2 replies
    • Gabinr1
      Joined: 05.04.2009 Posts: 7,755
      I would go broke here, don't know it it's right though, let's see.

      Board: Q:heart: T:spade: J:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    38.52%  37.26%   1.27% { QdJh }
      MP3    61.48%  60.21%   1.27% { JJ-TT, AQs+, KTs+, QTs, JTs, 98s, AQo+ }

      Against this range we have 37.26% equity (for a win). Let's see what pot odds do we get.

      Final pot will be = 102$ (rake was taken) [edit: I took away 5% rake, is there a cap at 3$?]
      We have 41.5 $ left

      Pot odds = 40.7%

      We can assume that villain will rarely fold when he raises you on this flop with UTG in the hand = he has some hand with equity or good SD value. That will mean that we rarely if any time we will take the pot without a showdown, so our raise has little to no FE - we are raising for value, staking off.

      Now, if we can adjust villains range so we get over 41% equity we have a profitable call.
      -If AK is not in his coldcalling range we get 51.7% equity and we do have a +EV call.
      -If he has AK, but doesn't call IP with 89s, then we have a breakeven call.
      -If he doesn't raise AQ & goes broke, we have a -EV call (with only 32% equity)[AK in his range, 89s not]

      i would expect him to 3bet AK, sometimes TT to isolate the fish. any ideas?
      The fish limped and you isolated him. If villain has a good hand with a 3bet he will scare the fish away and just be in the hand with you. This is why if villain knows this I think he will just call with his better hands instead of 3betting (to keep the fish in the pot). He might 3bet with 89s though, exactly for this reasons, for both of you to fold, or to play a pot ip with you with a disguised hand.
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I can´t see myself raise/folding that spot, since he would likely also 3-bet with JT and most of the times I´d expect players to 3-bet with TT+, AK. So that leaves 98s against that you may be behind