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[NL20-NL50] NL50SH - QQ overpair - bad fold?

    • luizsilveira
      Joined: 27.11.2010 Posts: 2,320
      BTN is tight reg 17/13 but with whom I don't have history. Our friend on the BB is a big whale fish 64/25 doing -100PTBB/100 so far :f_biggrin: SB is a reg more to the nitty side on 15/11.

      With the big whale certainly calling it wouldn't surprise me the regs where calling with all sorts of speculative hands.

      €0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

      UTG: €50.00
      MP: €96.79
      Hero (CO): €53.00
      BTN: €56.44
      SB: €51.50
      BB: €40.38

      SB posts SB €0.25, BB posts BB €0.50

      Pre Flop: (€0.75) Hero has Q:diamond: Q:club:

      fold, fold, Hero raises to €1.50, BTN calls €1.50, SB calls €1.25, BB calls €1.00

      Flop: (€6.00, 4 players) 3:heart: 2:club: 7:spade:

      On this flop I go for a biggish cbet. I could even have made it 5.50, for value. Lots of gutshot potential, plus 88-JJ are def. calling. Multiway I don't think people would float w/ overcards here though.

      SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets €5.00, BTN calls €5.00, fold, fold

      Turn: (€16.00, 2 players) 6:club:

      Well, one OESD completed (45), plus there is a lot of set potential as 22, 33, 66 and 77 are all on the BTN ver narrow pre-flop calling range. And even 67 got two pairs.

      So I think betting is not so good anymore, as I don't have many worse calling. 88-JJ would still call of course, but if I bet and get raised that is it for the hand. Maybe I should have done it and that was the best line but I decided to give up initiative and go for the check/call to represent overcards and expect him to bet all his value range.

      I must admit I did it without a major river plan for most cards that could come, so maybe check/fold turn would have been best anyway. He doesn't know exactly what I'm folding, could very well be just overcards, so it might not have been soooo exploitable.

      Hero checks, BTN bets €12.50, Hero calls €12.50

      The problem now is the pot is huge for the river and I'm OOP with what is barely a bluff catcher.

      River: (€41.00, 2 players) 9:club:
      Hero checks, BTN bets €37.44, fold

      With this river, an unlikely but possible RRFD completes, lots of straight potential, two pair potential, set potential... PLUS I don't expect any decent player to bet any pairs (like TT-JJ) but to check behind. He's betting two pairs+, maybe even checking behind weaker two pairs.

      I think it's an easy fold OTR but I don't like my turn. Either bet/fold or check/fold. If I'm calling anyway because I think I'm ahead, better to bet myself and get info. If I think I might be behind, check/folding is decent as he might check behind many mediocre showdown value hands on that turn. The problem with bet/folding turn is if he calls I don't have any decent plan for the river except the obvious check/fold - especially considering I don't think man people there are capable of floating two streets and bluff-shoving and all draws completed.
  • 1 reply
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      problem playing that way your hand is that it always looks like overpair who is going for pot control, so I really don´t like playing that passively and then fold river
      I´d likely would c/rai turn
      If he has there set then he´ll stack me, but at the same time he may easily b/c there smt like TT. Pot is big and I don´t really like c/f on blank river card