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[NL20-NL50] nl25 - J9s, 2nd pair into bluff

    • Maniatrix
      Joined: 01.11.2008 Posts: 674
      Villain is super nitty.

      11/5/ColdCall:8/3bet:1/AF:2.3/TurnCbet:22/Turn Pass on Cbet then fold:65/WTSD:25/W$SD:61/RiverAF:1.9/River bet W$SD: 86

      PokerStars - $0.25 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 9 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      MP+1: $46.91
      LP: $71.86
      CO: $21.52
      BTN: $68.00
      SB: $34.51
      BB: $40.74
      Hero (UTG): $32.59
      UTG+1: $62.50
      MP: $33.01

      SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25, MP+1 posts ante $0.05, LP posts ante $0.05, CO posts ante $0.05, BTN posts ante $0.05, SB posts ante $0.05, BB posts ante $0.05, Hero posts ante $0.05, UTG+1 posts ante $0.05, MP posts ante $0.05

      Pre Flop: ($0.80) Hero has 9:heart: J:heart:

      Hero raises to $1.00, fold, MP calls $1.00, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls $1.00, SB calls $0.90, fold

      When I have not played a hand in some orbits except from the button, I like to play any suited connector/one gapper. It's bad idea to limp first in so I raise instead. No real whales, LAGs or maniacs at the table either. Mostly nits and passive fish.

      I get called by one fish and two nits. Main villain is SB which stats you see above. He is only 3betting KK+ so I put him on a range of QQ-22, AQ and AK. Since their is already two callers he may have opened his cold calling range to some suited connectors but we can't really be sure about that.

      Flop: ($4.70, 4 players) 9:spade: 6:club: Q:heart:
      SB bets $1.00, Hero calls $1.00, fold, fold

      The nit donkbet smallish and I figure he has hit this flop with either a pair that don't want to face a big bet like TT-JJ, AQ for tptk that is doing a feeler bet or he has flopped a set and wants me to raise him.

      Turn: ($6.70, 2 players) 5:diamond:
      SB checks, Hero bets $4.00, SB calls $4.00

      He checks. Now stats tells me that he usually folds if he bets on the flop and then checks the turn OOP. I decide to bet and get him to fold TT-JJ. He calls and I start to be more certain that he has AQ here.

      River: ($14.70, 2 players) 5:heart:
      SB bets $2.00, Hero raises to $15.50, fold

      Hero wins $17.81

      I am 90% ruling out a full house by now. TT-JJ is not impossible but I think he would fold those to the turnbet. I believed this was a scared AQ doing a blockbet.
      So I went ahead and raised big believing he folds AQ in this spot, afraid of a full house or AA-KK.

      While his river bet W$SD is very high, I would assume he would bet more with a stronger holding than a pair and that most of his opponents would usually just pay his blockbet on the river off with a call in this spot, also contributing to his high W$SD after a river bet. If we can even take any stock in that stat, I doubt this guy has bet that many times on the river over 1-2k hands.

      I would just like some input on my reasoning. Am I correct in thinking he would usually fold tptk here and is that his most likely holding?
  • 3 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I think you raised best hand on the river :)
      Don´t see him b/f river Qx too often, so I´d just call getting really good odds
      Also I´d prefer raising flop with my pair+backdoor draws, since his bet looks really weak and I´d rather take pot down on the flop than calling him down
    • Maniatrix
      Joined: 01.11.2008 Posts: 674
      This is the same villain as the 54s hand.
      What hand beside AQ/JJ/TT would you put him on?
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      can´t he have there miss draw, like 78, JT or weak made hand, like 66-88
      But if you think he would always fold river, also better hands, then raising river is very good move and I don´t have any problem doing that. Problem is if you would turn there J9s into bluff and constantly would raise him on the river, then he would start b/c with Qx hands