[NL2-NL10] monster draw

    • w4terman
      w4terman
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.04.2011 Posts: 757
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.04(BB) Replayer
      SB ($2.53)
      BB ($2)
      UTG ($5.17)
      UTG+1 ($5.07)
      Hero ($5.02)
      MP1 ($3.42)
      MP2 ($6.97)
      CO ($1.44)
      BTN ($1.72)

      Dealt to Hero K:club: T:club:

      fold, fold, Hero calls $0.04, fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to $0.12, fold, Hero calls $0.08

      FLOP ($0.28) 2:diamond: J:club: Q:club:

      SB bets $0.13, Hero raises to $0.49, SB raises to $0.85, Hero raises to $4.90 (AI), SB calls $1.56 (AI)

      TURN ($5.10) 2:diamond: J:club: Q:club: 4:heart:

      RIVER ($5.10) 2:diamond: J:club: Q:club: 4:heart: 8:diamond:

      Hero shows K:club: T:club:
      (Pre 19%, Flop 49.4%, Turn 29.5%)

      SB shows A:heart: A:spade:
      (Pre 81%, Flop 50.6%, Turn 70.5%)

      SB wins $4.85

      i dont really know how i can play this hand correct but atleast i know it was a coin flip at the worse senario
  • 3 replies
    • MrOnas
      MrOnas
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.08.2010 Posts: 168
      For starters, I don't like the limp pre! Just fold the hand from that position.

      On the flop you have soooo much outs ( :f_eek: ) so to get it in on this board is fine by me.
    • Zareos
      Zareos
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.05.2009 Posts: 240
      I agree, I don't like the limp. If I enter a pot I want to have initiative and position. You have neither.

      With K10c against a raise you are more likely down pre-flop. Unless you had any reads on your opponent? Is he an agro donk etc?

      However, once you're in the pot, you have 15 outs to complete your monster draw. That's 60% or thereabouts with the turn and the river still to play. So you'll win 6 times out of ten.

      Meaning you'll win $29.10 but lose $19. Meaning about a +$10 EV. So, although I disagree with the limp pre-flop. The all-in was a good move, you just got unlucky.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello w4terman,

      Preflop: Fold those hands preflop.

      As plasyed
      Postflop: Against his stack there is not much to do as you went for a raise. Although is there any point even in raising? But definitely possible. We have a very strong hand and against any kind of hand have great equity, maybe even fold equity. As you raise then = go broke spot as well.

      Just for example:

      Board: 2:diamond: J:club: Q:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    49.39%  49.39%   0.00% { KcTc }
      UTG+1  50.61%  50.61%   0.00% { AhAs }

      We are getting pretty great equity and even in long run we will be earning profit from this kind of play. But now again it depends really on the opponent what's the best play here. We could as well just take the implied odds and play for a draw.

      Best regards.