[NL2-NL10] 95% equity bad beat

    • w4terman
      Joined: 04.04.2011 Posts: 757
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.04(BB) Party
      SB ($4)
      BB ($4.44)
      UTG ($1.78)
      UTG+1 ($4.36)
      Hero ($4.46)
      MP1 ($6.02)
      CO ($7.45)
      BTN ($4)

      Dealt to Hero 3:spade: 3:heart:

      fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.16, Hero calls $0.16, MP1 raises to $0.60, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG+1 calls $0.44, Hero calls $0.44

      FLOP ($1.86) 8:spade: A:spade: 3:diamond:

      UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, MP1 bets $1.32, UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to $3.86 (AI), MP1 calls $2.54

      TURN ($9.58) 8:spade: A:spade: 3:diamond: 6:spade:

      RIVER ($9.58) 8:spade: A:spade: 3:diamond: 6:spade: J:spade:

      Hero shows 3:spade: 3:heart:
      (Pre 54%, Flop 94.4%, Turn 81.8%)

      MP1 shows A:diamond: K:spade:
      (Pre 46%, Flop 5.6%, Turn 18.2%)

      MP1 wins $9.11
  • 4 replies
    • Jaissica
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      Its not going to cheer you up, but you probably shouldn't have been in this one. 12-1 on your set is marginal, out of position is marginal. Combined they equal muck to the 3bet.
    • Maniatrix
      Joined: 01.11.2008 Posts: 674
      If stacks were deeper I think it would be ok, but they are not, so fold pre.
      Anyway, this sort of thing happens every time I play. Look what I ran into today, not exactly fishy by my opponent but definitely a cooler:

      PokerStars - $0.25 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 9 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      Hero (UTG): $40.07
      UTG+1: $55.17
      MP: $62.09
      MP+1: $62.50
      LP: $42.38
      CO: $58.70
      BTN: $25.08
      SB: $50.89
      BB: $71.79

      SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25, Hero posts ante $0.05, UTG+1 posts ante $0.05, MP posts ante $0.05, MP+1 posts ante $0.05, LP posts ante $0.05, CO posts ante $0.05, BTN posts ante $0.05, SB posts ante $0.05, BB posts ante $0.05

      Pre Flop: ($0.80) Hero has Q:heart: Q:club:

      Hero raises to $1.00, UTG+1 calls $1.00, MP calls $1.00, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold

      Flop: ($3.80, 3 players) 7:club: Q:diamond: 3:diamond:
      Hero bets $2.75, UTG+1 raises to $8.00, fold, Hero raises to $39.02 and is all-in, UTG+1 calls $31.02

      Turn: ($81.84, 2 players) K:diamond:

      River: ($81.84, 2 players) 9:diamond:

      Hero shows Q:heart: Q:club: (Three of a Kind, Queens) (Pre 81%, Flop 91%, Turn 77%)
      UTG+1 shows 7:spade: 7:diamond: (Flush, King High) (Pre 19%, Flop 9%, Turn 23%)
      UTG+1 wins $79.84

      I didn't tilt about it then, but when I think about it now, that pot is a 12-pack of beers. DAMMIT! (Maybe 50 beers in normal countries)
    • w4terman
      Joined: 04.04.2011 Posts: 757
      i called cause utg called . i was thinking its gonna be cool if i hit my set with this 3bet and a call
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello w4terman,

      Preflop: Actually it's even pretty close to call here for set value. We are only getting ~12:1 so practically not the greatest implied odds. We have to have some kind of read on the opponent that he is able to go broke if we even do hit our set. But rather would use even Call15 for the set mining.

      As played
      Postflop: Nothing much to do, just a huge cooler. They happen. :(

      Best regards.