OK now... how is this even possible??? 7.8 million "upswing"?

    • blackops888
      blackops888
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.04.2010 Posts: 502
      Truth is I don't think this guy is on an upswing. He has figured something. His name is Ben Grundy...

      First of all, he is playing 221 hands/day on average according to the info on the graph. Is he 1-tabling and max-exploiting everyone? What happens?

      Here you got his results...





      Is he never getting into virtual flips with top set vs nut flush-draw on the flop? Is he never getting the worst when he is a 2:1 favorite? What you guys think this dude has found???

      I'm really curious, even read his blog and all... :f_biggrin:
  • 26 replies
    • ulairiiii
      ulairiiii
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.07.2011 Posts: 519
      he had downsings too
    • BigOVERBET
      BigOVERBET
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.11.2010 Posts: 433
      where did you find this immortal shaolin monk...this is graph is so sick that it looks real fake
    • Gerovit
      Gerovit
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.01.2011 Posts: 1,308
      This is his worst session ever and he is still up 7.7 mil.... took him 5,5 years for this though...i would be happy with 25 years




      http://milkybarkids.blogspot.com/
    • BigOVERBET
      BigOVERBET
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.11.2010 Posts: 433
      i will read his blog and see later..pretty awesome but also strange stuff
    • PkrPlyr2k11
      PkrPlyr2k11
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      Joined: 13.06.2011 Posts: 10
      How do I earn 7+ mil in 5 years?

      :f_cool:
    • Gerovit
      Gerovit
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      Joined: 16.01.2011 Posts: 1,308
      Originally posted by PkrPlyr2k11
      How do I earn 7+ mil in 5 years?

      :f_cool:
      You could rob a bank :f_confused:
    • blackops888
      blackops888
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.04.2010 Posts: 502
      Yeah guys... but what about the average of 221 hands/day???? Is he playing just one table and crushing everyone in it?
    • Kyyberi
      Kyyberi
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 09.07.2010 Posts: 10,511
      Well, that 221 hands a day is average. He might 4 table for 1-2 hours per day, 4 times a week.

      Hard to say about upswing as I can't see what stakes he is playing. But there are some swing too.

      You guys realize that HEM screenshots are VERY easy to manipulate. They can show whatever you want them to show. Like there where are his worst sessions, it shows "3 tabling PLO200 for 55mins, 57 hands". Doesn't really add up.

      I dont' say he's fake, but usually if someone wants to brag, it's much more convincing to show PTR stats or something similar.

      note: Look at his VPIP stats. Pretty high. When you manipulate HEM with filters (like dropping some lost pots) to give you better winnings, the VPIP goes up.

      If someone wants, I can show how easy it is to manipulate HEM. I made an example for Girah's thread in our Finnish community.
    • Kyyberi
      Kyyberi
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 09.07.2010 Posts: 10,511
      I had some time so I did it anyways. :D

      Basicly I just collected some screennames and put them all under one alias (Ihmelapsi). Here is what it looks like before filtering:



      Then I just filtered just the hands they won. Here is what it looks like after that:



      This all took 5mins. So if someone wants to make nice stats/graphs, it's not that hard. You can see how the VPIP went up.

      The reason I posted this is just simple warning. You should know how easy it is to manipulate HEM stats. So don't take everything as 100% proof. Also, if those screenshots are cut so that they don't show VPIP/PFR etc, you should smell that something is wrong (like with Girah's screenshots). Or they are cut so that filters are not shown.

      Of course it is still pretty easy to use photoshop so that even with VPIP/PFR and filters are shown, it could be fake. Always trust PTR more than HEM/PT screenshots.

      edit: here is PTR graph for his Ben Grundy nickname winnings for Full Tilt:


      I don't know when he has played those millions, but after Jan 21st 2008, he has played only 9K hands on Full Tilt, with average winrate of 3,36bb/100. Of course he might have played those millions before 2008, or he could have played +300K hands on other sites. But unless he gives the screennames for those accounts, there is no way he can give 100% proof about his winnings.
    • supeyrio
      supeyrio
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      Joined: 11.11.2009 Posts: 3,106
      ptr is quite off, just realised this recently... its probably a better gauge then some possible doctored evidence though
    • Kyyberi
      Kyyberi
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 09.07.2010 Posts: 10,511
      I love this monoloque :)

      I took a quick look at his blog. Looks like he is high stakes player, so making 7M in 3 years is not that difficult. But making 7M in 320K hands is pretty hard. Unless you hit an upswing.

      I looked more about this kid, and he has won over half a million in tournaments. He also claimed that he won over 2M in 2007-2008 at Betfair. He says his VPIP is 80%, which sound pretty strange. There might be a lot of fishes in Betfair (high roller gamblers), but VPIP 80% is just sick.

      His nickname in Betfair is "bennyboi", but PTR couldn't find it. I think they don't support PLO for Betfair.

      He might be telling the truth. Of he might be telling the truth with little bit of "sugaring" on top of it. :)

      And with VPIP80 he might be true poker prodigy, or just one lucky ****. :)
    • BigOVERBET
      BigOVERBET
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      Joined: 23.11.2010 Posts: 433
      or he is god
    • Zhusy
      Zhusy
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2010 Posts: 382
      Originally posted by BigOVERBET
      or he is god
      Maybe Chuck Norris?

      Chuck Norris can beat a Royal Flush with a set of 2.
    • blackops888
      blackops888
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.04.2010 Posts: 502
      Originally posted by Kyyberi
      I love this monoloque :)

      I took a quick look at his blog. Looks like he is high stakes player, so making 7M in 3 years is not that difficult. But making 7M in 320K hands is pretty hard. Unless you hit an upswing.

      I looked more about this kid, and he has won over half a million in tournaments. He also claimed that he won over 2M in 2007-2008 at Betfair. He says his VPIP is 80%, which sound pretty strange. There might be a lot of fishes in Betfair (high roller gamblers), but VPIP 80% is just sick.

      His nickname in Betfair is "bennyboi", but PTR couldn't find it. I think they don't support PLO for Betfair.

      He might be telling the truth. Of he might be telling the truth with little bit of "sugaring" on top of it. :)

      And with VPIP80 he might be true poker prodigy, or just one lucky ****. :)
      I don't know where I read it, maybe here on the news section of ps.com, that this guy may have "solved" PLO...

      Whatever this means, of couse.. :s_confused:
    • Darkzzz
      Darkzzz
      Black
      Joined: 28.06.2009 Posts: 184
      Well he has 13bb/100 which is not really out of the realm of possibilities. And with alot of bumhunting it should be possible I guess.
    • MarcPS
      MarcPS
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 09.11.2010 Posts: 1,077
      Originally posted by Kyyberi
      I love this monoloque :)

      I took a quick look at his blog. Looks like he is high stakes player, so making 7M in 3 years is not that difficult. But making 7M in 320K hands is pretty hard. Unless you hit an upswing.

      I looked more about this kid, and he has won over half a million in tournaments. He also claimed that he won over 2M in 2007-2008 at Betfair. He says his VPIP is 80%, which sound pretty strange. There might be a lot of fishes in Betfair (high roller gamblers), but VPIP 80% is just sick.

      His nickname in Betfair is "bennyboi", but PTR couldn't find it. I think they don't support PLO for Betfair.

      He might be telling the truth. Of he might be telling the truth with little bit of "sugaring" on top of it. :)

      And with VPIP80 he might be true poker prodigy, or just one lucky ****. :)
      he is confirmed legit and a complete sicko.

      well known on the UK poker scene for just crushing.
    • blackops888
      blackops888
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.04.2010 Posts: 502
      Originally posted by MarcPS
      Originally posted by Kyyberi
      I love this monoloque :)

      I took a quick look at his blog. Looks like he is high stakes player, so making 7M in 3 years is not that difficult. But making 7M in 320K hands is pretty hard. Unless you hit an upswing.

      I looked more about this kid, and he has won over half a million in tournaments. He also claimed that he won over 2M in 2007-2008 at Betfair. He says his VPIP is 80%, which sound pretty strange. There might be a lot of fishes in Betfair (high roller gamblers), but VPIP 80% is just sick.

      His nickname in Betfair is "bennyboi", but PTR couldn't find it. I think they don't support PLO for Betfair.

      He might be telling the truth. Of he might be telling the truth with little bit of "sugaring" on top of it. :)

      And with VPIP80 he might be true poker prodigy, or just one lucky ****. :)
      he is confirmed legit and a complete sicko.

      well known on the UK poker scene for just crushing.
      Guy is legitimate, actually. He is a well recognized player who has found SOMETHING... I mean... some way of playing the game without getting caught in high variance spots.

      Or just a psychic with a lot of intuitive talent (a skill acquired by training or even unconsciously).
    • Kyyberi
      Kyyberi
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 09.07.2010 Posts: 10,511
      I know that he is real. The questions is, are his winnings real?

      But what makes anyone think he plays variance-free? In that graph there are some big swings too.
    • blackops888
      blackops888
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.04.2010 Posts: 502
      Originally posted by Kyyberi
      I know that he is real. The questions is, are his winnings real?

      But what makes anyone think he plays variance-free? In that graph there are some big swings too.
      It is not variance-free, once he even reports some hard downswings in his own blog... but somehow he managed to play for 1400+ days without having huge swings. That's minimizing the thing, not eliminating, and the way he minimized it was really noteworthy. That's the point, got it?
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