[NL2-NL10] nl10 SH 55 blufing river

    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,068
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($2.85)
      BB ($9.48)
      UTG ($10.04)
      UTG+1 ($15.70)
      Hero ($18.29)
      BTN ($6.42)

      Dealt to Hero 5:heart: 5:diamond:

      fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.35, Hero calls $0.35, fold, fold, fold

      FLOP ($0.85) 9:heart: T:club: 6:spade:

      UTG+1 bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50

      TURN ($1.85) 9:heart: T:club: 6:spade: Q:heart:

      UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $1.10, UTG+1 calls $1.10

      RIVER ($4.05) 9:heart: T:club: 6:spade: Q:heart: 8:diamond:

      UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $2.10, UTG+1 calls $2.10

      19/14/1.7
      cbet 76
      cbet turn 43 (7)
      hands 505

      I call his cbet on flop with intention to float, because his turn cbet is low.

      River: now I can only win this hand by bluffing. Is is it worth to represent straight? I think he should fold his one pair hands there. But of course he himself might have the straight.
  • 14 replies
    • Cagey
      Cagey
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.07.2011 Posts: 99
      Think if you're going to bluff the river you will need to bet more, closer to pot. I think half pot he could definately be calling with top pair.
      A jack is certainly in his range when flat calling the turn though. he should be reraising KJ im guessing.
      Assuming his pfr isnt as high from utg+1 I'm guessing his range is something like 99,TT,AT,KT, AQ, KQ, AJ, JJ, QQ, KK, AA then less of the time KJ and AK hh or something like that (13ish combos). Think with a bigger bet he will mainly call with the obvious straight and occasionally sets which is about 15% of my estimated (possibly poorly) range. Obviously if he's a looser caller this could be differed. I think if the river bet is bigger it certainly could be profitable though.

      Disclaimer: I am by no means an expert.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,068
      I think if I bet bigger, he may think its a bluff, because by betting bigger I make hands fold. So I bet small to make it look like value bet.
    • matovicmilos
      matovicmilos
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.09.2007 Posts: 115
      Agree on bet sizing with Speedfanatic i do that aswell, play your bluffs the same way as you play your value hands against thinking players, they will recognize that as value and if he isnt folding to that he isnt folding to bigger bet either most probably.

      It is definitely worth to rep a jack there because it is big part of your flop calling range and i think villain would make a value bet on the river if he had one to get value from sets and 2pair hands, so only thing to look after is what reads villain has on you regards floating and double barrels.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello SPeedFANat1c,

      Of course what I would take into account here is his WTSD? If it's rather higher then we as well have to make a bigger bet on river. But as it's some average one and he is really thinking player then I don't mind your play at all.

      But of course the problem might be that he has a lot of Jx hands himself. :>

      Best regards.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,068
      his WTSD is 29 (84), so not that low, so we have to bet more
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by SPeedFANat1c
      his WTSD is 29 (84), so not that low, so we have to bet more
      Definitely. :) What was the hero-call with?
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,068
      What was the hero-call with?

      AA
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by SPeedFANat1c
      What was the hero-call with?

      AA
      Hehe. :D Wouldn't even be surprised of it. But most likely a bigger bet would make him fold.
    • TilTmuch
      TilTmuch
      Global
      Joined: 06.10.2010 Posts: 1,185
      vatomic u rly think NL10 regs are much into betsizing tells?
      if they are, then obv not many are, so he might of bet bigger to make him fold
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by TilTmuch
      vatomic u rly think NL10 regs are much into betsizing tells?
      if they are, then obv not many are, so he might of bet bigger to make him fold
      It's not about the bet sizing tell but if you are making it smaller you are giving him very good odds for a hero-call. :) If you are making it bigger you are forcing him to fold such hands as AA. :>
    • luizsilveira
      luizsilveira
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.11.2010 Posts: 2,320
      I'm surprised no one said "bet turn bigger". On that very connected board, betting less than 2/3 seems either like "I have air and am just floating" or "I suddenly got top pair and am value-betting thin" - and in either case he is correct to call turn bet.

      I'd go for at least 3/4 OTT, if not 5/4. Then if you want you can bet again river, like 1/2 to 2/3, and I think he would (on both streets) be much more likely to let go whatever.

      And it seems to me the bluff is good; OOP on that spot he never has twopair+ as pot control on that board makes no sense on the turn.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,068
      I'm surprised no one said "bet turn bigger". On that very connected board, betting less than 2/3 seems either like "I have air and am just floating" or "I suddenly got top pair and am value-betting thin" - and in either case he is correct to call turn bet.


      Or I am having straight and betting small to get calls from pairs like AA ;) But we must know the opponent more for this I guess. If he can call this turn with AA when I bet small then we need to bet bigger. If he now folds his AA because he is scared of straight, then its enought to bet small.

      What do you think about this?
    • luizsilveira
      luizsilveira
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.11.2010 Posts: 2,320
      Originally posted by SPeedFANat1c
      I'm surprised no one said "bet turn bigger". On that very connected board, betting less than 2/3 seems either like "I have air and am just floating" or "I suddenly got top pair and am value-betting thin" - and in either case he is correct to call turn bet.


      Or I am having straight and betting small to get calls from pairs like AA ;) But we must know the opponent more for this I guess. If he can call this turn with AA when I bet small then we need to bet bigger. If he now folds his AA because he is scared of straight, then its enought to bet small.

      What do you think about this?
      I don't think you should bet small a straight. There is a flush draw, a J, K or an A might give villain a better straight or cut down the action, etc.

      This is not a board for thin value in the turn IMO. Bet big and get value from strong hands and draws. Betting small there with a straight is missing tons of value. You can't bet small to get called by a tiny piece of villains range while a gigantic part of his range will either fold or call a big bet anyway...

      That's for the turn. River might be different and betting small to get called by top pair/over pairs might be an option on that board but I think it's very villain-dependant (some fishes will call even pot size OTR with top pair as they are only looking their cards, whereas thinking players will see a small bet as thin value and will fold easily etc.).
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,068
      ok, thansk, its nice to hear not only judges opinion, but from others as well :)