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[NL2-NL10] monster draw turn

    • w4terman
      Joined: 04.04.2011 Posts: 757
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.04(BB) Replayer
      SB ($1.61)
      BB ($4)
      UTG ($8.26)
      UTG+1 ($10.20)
      UTG+2 ($4.80)
      MP1 ($4)
      MP2 ($1.40)
      Hero ($4)
      BTN ($1.29)

      Dealt to Hero Q:heart: J:heart:

      fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.16, fold, MP1 calls $0.16, fold, Hero calls $0.16, fold, fold, fold

      FLOP ($0.54) Q:diamond: K:diamond: T:heart:

      UTG+1 bets $0.40, MP1 calls $0.40, Hero calls $0.40

      TURN ($1.74) Q:diamond: K:diamond: T:heart: K:heart:

      UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets $0.88, Hero calls $0.88, UTG+1 folds

      RIVER ($3.50) Q:diamond: K:diamond: T:heart: K:heart: 9:spade:

      MP1 checks, Hero checks

      MP1 shows J:spade: A:spade:
      (Pre 70%, Flop 87.0%, Turn 68.2%)

      Hero shows Q:heart: J:heart:
      (Pre 30%, Flop 13.0%, Turn 31.8%)

      MP1 wins $3.33

      i think i had the odds to call on the turn but maybe i am wronge cause a full house could be out there
  • 2 replies
    • matovicmilos
      Joined: 06.09.2007 Posts: 115
      I think it depends on MP1 calling range if he was a fish then it is definitely a call on turn after the raiser checked because you have 2 monster outs and 7 flush outs which i think is good against fish range and its only a half pot bet, i would also make a smallish value bet on the river after he checked but turns out i would be wrong..

      If he was tight player you can determine hes range to call EP raise, call on this flop and bet the turn is something like TT, JJ, KQs, AJs, AQs, AQo, AKo, KJs, KTs, QJs(maybe). Against TT, KQ and KT you are almost drawing dead, AK kills 3 of your outs, rest i think you have decent equity considering bet sizing so its pretty close in my opinion but i would call just because of chance for a royal(yes i am a fish)...
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello w4terman,

      Flop: I'd rather even ask the question if there is any reason to call here. We might easily have reversed implied odds here while already being against made straight. Also of course we have to discount a lot of outs because of the flushdraw possibility and 9 might not be out for us.

      As played
      Turn: For the given odds it's damn close. While there are just so many cards which easily kill our action. We have to discount a lot of outs. But while we getting 2:1 odds then shouldn't be that problem while UTG might jump in as well. Most likely our plan will be to play for the flush or even straightflush/royalflush.
      River: Guess I'd still bet for value as we Called on turn and he did show weakness.

      Best regards.