Nl10-NL25 stats analisis

    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,071


      Hi,

      I this is NL10, NL20, NL25 short handed stats, but most of them are NL10, others are only few thousand hands.

      I am having very low winrate I want you to ask if you can see some of my leaks from stats.

      I checked NL2 and NL4 stats over 27K hands and there was 13bb/100 hands winrate. Only thing I remember is I made less cbets on flop against loose players, on from stats flop cbet at those limits is 71.7

      On NL10+ as you can see I cbet on flop 83.3 % so maybe this is my huge leak? The don't respect my bluffs, float and so I loose my money?
  • 19 replies
    • TiciBoy
      TiciBoy
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.01.2010 Posts: 1,235
      Originally posted by SPeedFANat1c


      Hi,

      I this is NL10, NL20, NL25 stats, but most of them are NL10, others are only few thousand hands.

      I am having very low winrate I want you to ask if you can see some of my leaks from stats.

      I checked NL2 and NL4 stats over 27K hands and there was 13bb/100 hands winrate. Only thing I remember is I made less cbets on flop against loose players, on from stats flop cbet at those limits is 71.7

      On NL10+ as you can see I cbet on flop 83.3 % so maybe this is my huge leak? The don't respect my bluffs, float and so I loose my money?
      Yes, you cbet too much, try choosing flops that are good for cbetting, also, don't cbet if you miss everything against calling stations and big fishes, they will not fold. Instead just value bet the shit out of them. ;)

      Another thing that pops out is, you fold too much to steals. If I were villain, I'd steal 100% of hands if you fold 9/10 times. If CO or BU are stealing a wide range and fold to 3bets, try 3betting with more hands (blockers (Ax, KQ, KJ type of hands), hands that play good on the flop (mid SC and OG (TJs, QJ, QTs), small pockets).

      I'd 3bet more (but I play 6max, not FR).

      Hope that helps a little. I'm sure someone more adequate will give you some more advice. :)
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,071
      Thanks for response.

      try choosing flops that are good for cbetting


      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($12.66)
      BB ($12.72)
      UTG ($11.31)
      UTG+1 ($20.76)
      Hero ($10)
      BTN ($8.93)

      Dealt to Hero J:diamond: A:heart:

      fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, fold, fold

      FLOP ($0.75) 6:diamond: 4:club: 7:heart:

      Hero checks, BTN bets $0.40, Hero folds

      BTN wins $0.72

      42/26/5 bet in position 89, 109 hands

      When I don't cbet, I get in spot like this. He has nothing very often, but check/raising would be overplay I think. If I cbet, he will call, and bet the turn if I check. So, maybe against those guys I should check/call with made hands OOP, because they bet if I don't cbet?

      Another thing that pops out is, you fold too much to steals. If I were villain, I'd steal 100% of hands if you fold 9/10 times. If CO or BU are stealing a wide range and fold to 3bets, try 3betting with more hands (blockers (Ax, KQ, KJ type of hands), hands that play good on the flop (mid SC and OG (TJs, QJ, QTs), small pockets).


      I was trying earlier defent blind more, but I saw that I make many mistakes in defending, choose wrong spots and wrong opponents against whom I could 3bet and then make mistakes post flop when they call in position. So I 3bet them not too much. Also I try to call with hands like AJs+ OOP. Maybe I should study blind defence situations more.

      I'd 3bet more (but I play 6max, not FR).


      I play 6max also.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,071
      a wide range and fold to 3bets


      BTW could you tell in numbers what is wide open range, and what fold to 3bet should be so I could profitably bluff 3bet OOP?
    • yougotfelted51
      yougotfelted51
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.02.2010 Posts: 1,276
      lots of people will open 40% plus on btn/30% in co.
      ex. a 45% range looks like: 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q4s+,J6s+,T6s+,96s+,86s+,75s+,64s+,54s,A2o+,K8o+,Q8o+,J8o+,T8o+,98o

      look at players fold to 3b stat, if its high (75%+), you can 3b bluff oop with a wider array of hands. 3bet bluffing is opponent depedent and very much depends on their opening range, fold to 3bet, and 4bet stats.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,071
      ok, thanks, I'll try to use that info at the tables :)
    • yougotfelted51
      yougotfelted51
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      Joined: 04.02.2010 Posts: 1,276
      let us know how things are going at the tables :)
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      I doubt the problem is too many cbets. You don't want to cbet too often in multiway pots, but it's ok to cbet close to 100% in heads-up pots when your opponents are not punishing this. The 47% cbet success rate indicates that the cbets are showing a huge immediate profit.

      I think 31% is a bit low as a steal rate. Many players will give you an immediate profit if you open to 3bb from the SB. You won't get an immediate profit when you open from the button, but it's very profitable anyway with more than your current 39% button steal range because you have set up profitable continuation bets and you have position.

      Your aggression factor of 6 is really high. More aggression is not necessarily better. It could be that you are missing profitable calls, and are betting when you are just folding out weaker hands and paying off better hands instead of checking to induce.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,071
      The 47% cbet success rate indicates that the cbets are showing a huge immediate profit.


      May you explain this more? Why it makes huge imediate profit. We hit about 30% of flops, (have heard somewhere :) )

      If I cbet 66% of the potsize, then I can win 166% on success.So the success rate should be 66/166 = 40%. Plus the cbet 1/3 of the time is for value.

      So 2/3 of the time of those 40% cbet must be succesffull, which is 27 %.

      So not much success we need then if I am correct?

      And now I am bit confused because there are two opoinions about cbets :) Too much and not too much :)

      But I just remember I had good profit when I had ~70% of cbets at lower stakes as I said earlier. So I was almost prepared start making less cbets.

      Many players will give you an immediate profit if you open to 3bb from the SB


      I don't like stealing without position. But if you say I would make more profit, then I should consider it. What percentage should I aim for in steal being in SB?

      Your aggression factor of 6 is really high.

      Yeah, but I have it unconciously :) but there are problems with it when I stack of on 944 flop with JJ :) these probably make it so high.
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      Originally posted by SPeedFANat1c
      The 47% cbet success rate indicates that the cbets are showing a huge immediate profit.

      May you explain this more? Why it makes huge imediate profit. We hit about 30% of flops, (have heard somewhere :) )

      If I cbet 66% of the potsize, then I can win 166% on success.So the success rate should be 66/166 = 40%. Plus the cbet 1/3 of the time is for value.

      So 2/3 of the time of those 40% cbet must be succesffull, which is 27 %.
      "Immediate profit" ignores the strength of your hand. It means your bet gets so many folds that betting and then giving up if you are called is better than giving up now. If you bet 2/3 pot, you need only 40% folds to make an immediate profit, as you calculated. In practice, you don't have to give up every time your opponent does not fold, and checking is also not the same thing as giving up, so immediate profit does not tell you whether it is right to bet or not. However, your total profit can be broken down into immediate profits (or losses) on each street plus your share of the pots which go to showdown. If you get a large immediate profit by betting now, then checking has to be quite profitable later for it to be better.

      By the way, your calculation of 27% assumes your opponents act differently based on what you have, and that they don't fold when you are betting for value. This is a poor assumption. In practice your opponents actually fold a little more often when you have something because of card removal effects. It's easier for your opponent to have top pair if you don't have top pair.


      I don't like stealing without position. But if you say I would make more profit, then I should consider it. What percentage should I aim for in steal being in SB?
      Aim for profit, not a percentage. Adjust to your opponents. If the BB doesn't defend the blinds very often, then steal with a 100% range. Steal until the BB starts defending often enough to make it unprofitable to steal with complete trash.

      What is your steal success rate from the small blind, and how much do you typically open-raise from there? Do your raises make an immediate profit?

      If you feel your opponents are more observant, then you should sometimes fold from the small blind. If you folded the previous time, then you might steal with a wider range the next time. If you raise several times in a row, some people will take a stand with marginal hands just to show you that they know you are stealing with trash. However, some opponents will not adjust correctly. Some will tighten up against a loose raiser because they fear later bets, and that a maniac might have two pair on a flop like K72. Tightening up against a maniac means the maniac's first raise is more profitable.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,071
      What is your steal success rate from the small blind, and how much do you typically open-raise from there?


      SB steal success is 64.2.

      SB UO PFR is 29.1 (as I understand it is open-raise)

      I will watch later the video about imediate profit, was too tired/had no time past few days :)
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,071
      Ok, the month passed after evaluation, lets review :) I was thinking I am running like really bad, lost 6.5 byins in ten hours of play this weekend, but checked the stats using filter "after august 18" and its not that bad as I thought - 4bb/100 over 17K hands :) but 4 bb are not that much on those stakes, I need to improve. BTW most of the hands are NL20 - 13K.



    • Jaissica
      Jaissica
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      Perhaps tighten up slightly from UTG. You might be bleeding a few pots there... exposing yourself to both light and value 3bets from position, as well as being an easy squeeze target... and there isn't much of that 13.3% open raise range you can profitably call a 3bet with OOP / 4bet with.

      BB resteal and BB play is still a little tight. Remember, by the time SB and to a lesser extent BU open its almost down to a heads-up range. You should be considering restealing in the BB with any two cards you would open with in MP. If the villain starts 4bet re-re-stealing, tighten your resteal range, loosen your preflop broke range and go for the throat.

      SB steal is a little low. You can profitably steal off many players at these limits with any two cards and should be opening accordingly.

      Squeeze is kind of low, but that's fairly situational.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,071
      SB steal is a little low. You can profitably steal off many players at these limits with any two cards and should be opening accordingly.


      I try to steal, but I stop doing this with trash once I see players 3beting in BB a lot, or calling and floating. I don't want to play OOP and I think I would just burn money, so I choose stronger hands in SB. Probably thats why my SB steal is low.
    • PocketAcesJohn
      PocketAcesJohn
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.06.2008 Posts: 1,116
      3bet more, 4bet more. Nothing wrong playing just a value range, but your win rate will increase noticeable if you start 3betting light and 4betting light in the right spots. This is even more true for FR than SH as in FR picking on the right players they hardly ever fight back, SH they fight back more often due to the increased aggression of that format.
    • wnbMG
      wnbMG
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.04.2011 Posts: 586
      Hello. Should i borrow this thread please? :) thanks :P
      I am running pretty under EV(120$) but my nonshowdowns are just horrible :/
      STATS:


    • Jaissica
      Jaissica
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      Your resteal / fold to steal are way too tight mate :)
    • Slurpee
      Slurpee
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.10.2010 Posts: 140
      Originally posted by PocketAcesJohn
      3bet more, 4bet more. Nothing wrong playing just a value range, but your win rate will increase noticeable if you start 3betting light and 4betting light in the right spots. This is even more true for FR than SH as in FR picking on the right players they hardly ever fight back, SH they fight back more often due to the increased aggression of that format.
      What if he raises AI after you 4bet? I've been in this spot many times with hand like AJ KJ QJ offsuit because i was told as well to 4bet lighter then my normal range (AK, KK, AA, etc) against weaker players yet each time they AI they're holding KK+ against my weaker range of AJ-QJ. only a few times i stole their 3bet
    • PocketAcesJohn
      PocketAcesJohn
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.06.2008 Posts: 1,116
      Originally posted by Slurpee
      Originally posted by PocketAcesJohn
      3bet more, 4bet more. Nothing wrong playing just a value range, but your win rate will increase noticeable if you start 3betting light and 4betting light in the right spots. This is even more true for FR than SH as in FR picking on the right players they hardly ever fight back, SH they fight back more often due to the increased aggression of that format.
      What if he raises AI after you 4bet? I've been in this spot many times with hand like AJ KJ QJ offsuit because i was told as well to 4bet lighter then my normal range (AK, KK, AA, etc) against weaker players yet each time they AI they're holding KK+ against my weaker range of AJ-QJ. only a few times i stole their 3bet
      I'd avoid 4-betting an un-polerized range if i was you.
      4bet your big hands for value. But when your 4 betting light (4-bet bluffing) you want to avoid hands that will leave you in awkward spots as is the case with the hands you mentioned (AJ, QJ, etc). The bottom part of your range should be like (76s, 22-55, 75s, J-3s etc.) Basically your light 4 bet is trying to win the pot right there and then, if you get called you have potential to make big hands. If you get 5bet shoved easy fold. Obvs though you have to keep your range balanced, if it becomes to bluff heavey you'll be exploitable. Let the situation chosse you, don't go looking for them.
    • PocketAcesJohn
      PocketAcesJohn
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.06.2008 Posts: 1,116
      Originally posted by Slurpee
      ....only a few times i stole their 3bet
      Well then...your not picking the right spots as said previously. Don't randomly 4bet light. look at your HUD, is a 4-bet outright profitable? How often is villan 3-betting? What is villan's continue range vs 4 bets? when he continues, how offten does he flat and with what hands? how offten does he 5bet?

      Might be abit to confussing for you. If so forget everything i've said. What i'm suggesting isn't necessary to beat NL10-25, it does however have the pottential to turn a 3/4PT3bb/100 winner into a 6-8Pt3bb/100 winner (FR).