[NL2-NL10] nl2 - Should have folded river?

    • Philfox1985
      Joined: 18.12.2010 Posts: 934
      Nasty spot, but going to be behind too much to call on river here?

      Called as I was feeling pot commited, but I can't really agree with that if I'm going to lose to such a play every time?

      Played this hand a few days ago, didn't post as I didn't take it too well & couldn't think about hand in a clear logical manner ;-)

      Known players:

      0.01/0.02 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy.com Elephant 0.102 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A:club: , J:spade:
      UTG1 calls $0.02, UTG2 calls $0.02, MP1 calls $0.02, Hero raises to $0.13, 5 folds, UTG1 calls $0.11, UTG2 folds, MP1 calls $0.11.

      Flop: ($0.44) J:heart: , T:spade: , 5:spade: (3 players)
      UTG1 checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets $0.28, UTG1 calls $0.28, MP1 calls $0.28.

      Turn: ($1.28) 2:heart: (3 players)
      UTG1 checks, MP1 raises $0.06 (All-In), Hero raises to $0.80, UTG1 calls $0.80.

      River: ($2.94) Q:heart: (3 players)
      UTG1 bets $2.94, Hero calls $0.94 (All-In), UTG1 gets uncalled bet back (All-In).

      Final Pot: $4.82

      Results follow (highlight to see):
      UTG1 shows a flush, king high (Kh Th)
      MP1 shows (As 3d)
      Hero shows (Ac Js)

      UTG1 wins with a flush, king high (Kh Th)
  • 3 replies
    • Wriggers
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,250
      As you said, a tough spot, as you're getting great odds to call here, you need to be good <20% of the time to break even here. But still, are we even ahead that amount of the time here? I think it's very close as he could still be shoving some of his busted flop flush draws. I wouldn't have been scared of the backdoor flush draw, much more worried about a straight but obviously the backdoor flush is possible.

      It's a very close decision in my opinion, as indeed the majority of his donk-shoving range on the river is completed draws and monsters, but there is an amount of busted flush draws he could do this with. It all comes down to your reads on the opponent here.
    • Philfox1985
      Joined: 18.12.2010 Posts: 934
      From memory, villian was pretty passive & fishy.

      Quick glance at limited stats on hom show WTS of around 45%, so doesn't like to fold once hit a hand & rarely making opponents fold.

      Perfect candidate for value betting, but also less likely to donk all-in against us as agression is relatively low.
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Philfox1985,

      After our line I don't really see what kind of hands we beat on river. For me it should be a standard fold. We will see anyways his hand while one opponent is already in. We still have almost 50% our stack left, not worth making hero-call here.

      Best regards.