whats your win rate?

    • w4terman
      w4terman
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.04.2011 Posts: 757
      Hello everyone i am playing nlh4 atm and close to jump to nhl10 (need 6$ to reach 250$).

      my winrate atm is around 12bb/100 is this good - normal - slow - fast ?

      whats your winrate ?!

      thank you
  • 12 replies
    • DrDunne
      DrDunne
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,376
      mine was 10BB/100 at 2nl and i thought it was a little small :( although i am only just getting the hang of bss
    • arvyzalo
      arvyzalo
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2011 Posts: 7
      Mine is 23.45bb/100 right now at NL2 :)
    • w4terman
      w4terman
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.04.2011 Posts: 757
      Originally posted by arvyzalo
      Mine is 23.45bb/100 right now at NL2 :)
      this looks good at how many hands ?
    • arvyzalo
      arvyzalo
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2011 Posts: 7
      not much, so far only 2.7K hands played
    • thazar
      thazar
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.09.2009 Posts: 6,561
      Hi W4terman

      Don't worry to much about winrate at low limits. You normally don't stay there long enough to have a large enough sample for it to be significant. But over a large sample 12bb/100 is still quite decent. (and congratz arvyzalo but 2.7k is not a sample :P )

      good luck at NL10 and keep crushing ;)

      Regards

      Thazar
    • arvyzalo
      arvyzalo
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2011 Posts: 7
      I know this :) how many hands are enough, to have a reliable sample?
    • purplefizz
      purplefizz
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.03.2008 Posts: 4,508
      well arvyzalo,

      im no expert but i've heard that 20k hands should be able to give you a rough idea on your winrate. :)

      smiles,
      wendy
    • dogma18
      dogma18
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.12.2009 Posts: 340
      Mine is 12bb/100 at 0.25/0.50...of course sample size is kinda small at 14k hands
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      If your standard deviation is about 90 bb/100, then about 95% of the time, after n hands your win rate will be within 1800/squareroot(n) bb/100 of your true win rate. So, even after 10k hands this would be a very large +- 18 bb/100 interval.

      It is important to look at more than the results. Look at how you got there, and try to identify edges you have over your opponents. Once you have a solid understanding of poker, you can see whether you have a big advantage or a small one long before your win rate settles down.
    • matel17
      matel17
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 1,278
      Originally posted by pzhon
      If your standard deviation is about 90 bb/100, then about 95% of the time, after n hands your win rate will be within 1800/squareroot(n) bb/100 of your true win rate. So, even after 10k hands this would be a very large +- 18 bb/100 interval.
      How do you get this?
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      That was a normal approximation. Perhaps I should have said that those figures assume you don't tilt much.

      The standard deviation per 100 hands is reported by some software. The standard deviation of your win rate decreases by 1/sqrt(# hands). So, if your standard deviation per 100 hands is 90 bb (so that playing 100 hands is about as risky as a coin flip for 90 big blinds), then the standard deviation for your win rate after 100 x H hands is 90/sqrt(H) bb/100, or 900/sqrt(# hands) bb/100.

      95% of a normal distribution (an ideal bell curve) is within 2 standard deviations of the mean, and if you play a lot under the same conditions (without tilting) then your results should be roughly normally distributed. Two standard deviations would be 1800/sqrt(# hands) bb/100.
    • Darkzzz
      Darkzzz
      Black
      Joined: 28.06.2009 Posts: 184
      I'd say 50K gives you a good idea, but even then u might have moved up already, luck plays such a big factor. I have had a 100K hands breakeven stretch and am a solid winner.