[NL2-NL10] QQ nl25

    • deivid2
      deivid2
      Global
      Joined: 23.05.2009 Posts: 6,366
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      SB ($65.10)
      BB ($73.79)
      UTG ($6.05)
      UTG+1 ($69.85)
      Hero ($25.20)
      BTN ($62.26)

      Dealt to Hero Q:diamond: Q:spade:

      fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.90, Hero raises to $2.85, fold, SB calls $2.70, fold, UTG+1 calls $1.95

      FLOP ($8.80) T:club: 5:club: 5:heart:

      SB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $6, SB calls $6, UTG+1 folds

      TURN ($20.80) T:club: 5:club: 5:heart: J:spade:

      SB checks, Hero bets $16.35 (AI), SB calls $16.35

      RIVER ($53.50) T:club: 5:club: 5:heart: J:spade: 9:club:

      28/17/0.9 144hands
      WTSD 38

      PRE: Stand and get calls so his range look like 88+, AQ+ maybe AJ
      F: super c-bet for value ang bet/calls get calls okey PP, FD maybe A-high
      T: :] the worse card in deck JJ hit set, but okey i have PSB his reasonable range look like



      Board: 5:heart: T:club: 5:club:  J:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    46.02%  44.46%   1.56% { QdQs }
      MP3    53.98%  52.41%   1.56% { JJ+, 99-88, ThTs, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc }



      but here is big problem how often he calls 88-99 and has AJ becsoue this cards can put me situation like this:


      Board: 5:heart: T:club: 5:club:  J:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    16.33%  13.84%   2.49% { QdQs }
      MP3    83.67%  81.18%   2.49% { JJ+, ThTs, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc }



      so really can c/f here and i think this is weak but no leak. But this is 3b pot i have OP and he has WTSD 38% so i bet and loose his TT so i can be resultat orient
  • 4 replies
    • sausage646
      sausage646
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.03.2010 Posts: 567
      on turn, i would say something like this...
      QdQs - 27,05 %
      QQ-TT,AcKc,AcQc,KcQc - 72,95% (AA and KK he probably would put in pre flop)

      30,5 % needed. And very possible he would fold QQ because it only beats flush draws...

      c turn c/f river... really nice analyse from your side :rolleyes: ;)
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello deivid2,

      The problem is really that we don't beat much against his 3bet calling range. Or do you expect him to Call loose the 3bet? So practically myself I'd really be inclined to Check it behind also. Doubt that he is shipping the river anyways without a made hand while he seems to be very passive.

      Best regards.
    • deivid2
      deivid2
      Global
      Joined: 23.05.2009 Posts: 6,366
      so checkback turn and fold his ship river yes?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by deivid2
      so checkback turn and fold his ship river yes?
      Unfortunately yes, I rarely doubt that he is turning his hand into bluff and even when the flush completes. :(