[NL20-NL50] NL50 KQo draw heavy board v overshove

    • Millsyuk
      Joined: 08.06.2009 Posts: 435
      Villain is 16/15/8 (25/25 BB) over 120 hands. Has 3bet from the blinds 4/8 times but never flatted. 3bets a lot generally (14%).

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($51)
      BB ($20)
      UTG ($41.25)
      UTG+1 ($50.75)
      UTG+2 ($24.55)
      MP1 ($19.25)
      MP2 ($36.90)
      Hero ($102)
      BTN ($54.20)

      Dealt to Hero Q:heart: K:spade:

      fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.50, fold, fold, BB raises to $3, Hero calls $1.50

      FLOP ($6.25) 7:heart: J:heart: T:heart:

      BB checks, Hero bets $3.50, BB raises to $17 (AI), Hero folds

      BB wins $12.65

      Need to win ~35% to profit.

      Is this range reasonable?

      (TT,77,AJs,KQs,JTs,9c8c,9d8d,9s8s,6h5h,5h4h,4h3h,3h2h,AhQc,AhQd,AJo,AhTc,AhTd,AhTsKQo,JTo) - have 45% eq.

      Have excluded JJ+ and not sure if I should be including TT as he would probably 3bet all of these pre. Have also excluded 9h8h and Ahxh as I don't think a shove makes any sense here.

      If I use this range its a clear call but dont know if this is a bit wide and he is most likely to be shoving sets and low flushes plus maybe JT which he needs protection with, if I use a range of those I'm pretty far behind.

  • 2 replies
    • awishformore
      Joined: 16.06.2007 Posts: 922
      120 really isn't much to gauge someone's 3betting tendencies from the blinds. I would say he probably has a top-heavy 3betting range of broadways and pairs.

      I somehow don't think he would overshove a made flush - unless you've seen him overshove nuts before. To me, it looks like he doesn't want to see a call, so either he has some good hand he wants to protect from the flush, or he doesn't have a made hand but can't let go. In that light, I think a sensible range would look like this:

      77, TT+, AhKx, AxKh, AsJx, AcJx, AdJx

      That would leave you with 46.16%.

      To be honest, I don't really think he would play AJ that way either, which would leave you with 38.60%


      Either way, that's just my read on this kind of player, but it's always very opponent-dependent, so you'll have to trust your reads and build a range based on those reads. In most cases however, you should end up with the necessary equity to make the call.
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      easy b/c on the flop with oesd+overcards+flushdraw
      Against AT (with flushdraw) you´re favorite and I can´t see how you can be way behind that you should b/f flop