[NL2-NL10] NL 10 SH, AA flush draw on mega-drawy flop

    • YinYangS
      YinYangS
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.10.2010 Posts: 1,077
      most interesting hand of the day.

      Button villain is 16/8 in 140 hands, 0% 3bet, 1.3 AF
      BB villain is 25/23 in 180 hands, 16% 3bet, 5.7 AF

      does i have equity to call against 3-way all-in when another heart is probably my only chance?


      Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1413866
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BB: $9.10
      UTG: $17.46
      Hero (CO): $10.84
      BTN: $8.95
      SB: $10.05

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with A :spade: A :heart:
      1 fold, Hero raises to $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, 1 fold, BB calls $0.20

      Flop: ($0.95) Q :heart: J :heart: T :heart: (3 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.50, BTN raises to $1.40, BB raises to $8.80 all in, Hero?



      Hero folds, BTN calls $7.25 all in

      Turn: ($18.75) 9 :club: (2 players - 2 are all in)

      River: ($18.75) 4 :spade: (2 players - 2 are all in)

      Final Pot: $18.75
      BB shows Q :club: K :heart: (a straight, Nine to King)
      BTN shows J :diamond: J :spade: (three of a kind, Jacks)
      BB wins $17.82
      (Rake: $0.93)
  • 3 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello YinYangS,

      Most likely it's safer to fold here since we need ~42% equity if we expect the BTN not going broke. But if we expect the BTN going broke as well then it comes more to close move. Overall it's anyways a pretty much a flippy spot and if you don't want to take it then going for a fold is totally fine. Vs 3 opponents we would need ~30% equity.

      Board: Q:heart: J:heart: T:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    36.94%  34.95%   1.99% { AhAs }
      UTG+1  39.46%  37.46%   1.99% { QQ-TT, AKs, AKo }
      UTG+2  23.60%  23.34%   0.27% { JJ-TT, QJs, Kh8h, 7h6h, QJo, Jc9h, 9h8c }

      Guess myself I would make the crying fold here as well since we ain't head here but most likely are just going for the nutFD.

      Best regards.
    • YinYangS
      YinYangS
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.10.2010 Posts: 1,077
      a friend told me that i should have called. because i would either be losing 1 buy-in or winning 1.5 buy-ins.

      but i guess thinking that i'm behind already and has only around 30% chance to win, i thought of just folding.


      Originally posted by veriz
      Hello YinYangS,

      Most likely it's safer to fold here since we need ~42% equity if we expect the BTN not going broke. But if we expect the BTN going broke as well then it comes more to close move. Overall it's anyways a pretty much a flippy spot and if you don't want to take it then going for a fold is totally fine. Vs 3 opponents we would need ~30% equity.

      Board: Q:heart: J:heart: T:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    36.94%  34.95%   1.99% { AhAs }
      UTG+1  39.46%  37.46%   1.99% { QQ-TT, AKs, AKo }
      UTG+2  23.60%  23.34%   0.27% { JJ-TT, QJs, Kh8h, 7h6h, QJo, Jc9h, 9h8c }

      Guess myself I would make the crying fold here as well since we ain't head here but most likely are just going for the nutFD.

      Best regards.
    • Philfox1985
      Philfox1985
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2010 Posts: 934
      According to the hand ranges calculated if you call and BTN also calls:

      You need to spend a further $8.30 to call, if you lose the hand this is your loss from this decision. This happens 63% of the time.

      You will win ($9.10 + $8.95) = $18.05 if you were to win the hand. This happens 37% of the time.

      The EV from the decision: (63% * -8.30) + (37% * 18.05) = 1.45

      This calculation ignores rake, so won't actually prove to be as profitable.

      Problem is that your chances of winning don't increase much against only one opponent (I believe). If we assume that the BTN folds:

      You need to spend a further $8.30 to call, if you lose the hand this is your loss from this decision. This happens 60% of the time.

      You will win ($9.10 + $1.70) = $10.80 if you were to win the hand. This happens 40% of the time.

      The EV from the decision: (60% * -8.30) + (40% * 10.70) = -0.70

      Again, we would actually lose more due to rake.