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[NL2-NL10] NL10 A2s

    • abc794
      Joined: 07.05.2010 Posts: 155
      Hand converted with online hand converter:

      Hand abspielen

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)

      Known players:
      BB (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is BB with 2, A.
      2 folds, BU raises to $0.30, SB folds, Hero raises to $1.20, BU calls $0.90.

      Flop: ($2.45) J, 4, Q (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.74, BU calls $1.74.

      Turn: ($5.93) T (2 players)
      Hero bets $4.23, BU calls $4.23.

      River: ($14.39) 9 (2 players)
      Hero bets $16.44, BU calls $6.48.

      Final Pot: $37.31.

      tell me can this play be profitable in any way?

      villain is 26/25 over 83 hands with 33% steal from bu and 54% steal from co
      further he has 0% fold to cbet, he called my bet on the flop after 2-3 seconds and took like 15 seconds to call my turn bet. also i have restealed from him 2 times before in a short time period, where he folded to my 3bet, his fold to 3bet is 80% on 5 samples. He has 20% WTSD.
      he 4bets AA,KK and also probably AK and QQ preflop, right? so his calling range on the flop is AQ+,JJ,QQ,44,KT+,QT+,9T and maybe 77-TT ?
      I think on the turn we can narrow his calling range to AQ+,JJ,QQ,44,TT,QT+ and maybe KQ?

      Board: J:diamond: 4:spade: Q:club:  T:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    24.23%  23.26%   0.97% { Ac2c }
      MP3    75.77%  74.80%   0.97% { QQ-TT, 44, AQs+, KQs, QTs+, AQo+, KQo, QTo+ }

      against this range the bluff has to work 75% to be BE, if he shoves, is that right?

      now since he calls, and i dont hit, theres a scarecard on the river, on which i shove after 2-3 seconds. He now really only call a Kx hand and has to lay down any top pair, two pair and set, or is he so much commited that he will call almost always with everything mentioned above?

      the next thing is, do i put him on a too high level? or would a play like this only work on NL100+? so it was a spew? :D
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello abc794,

      Preflop: First of all. If you really had been 3betting a lot against him then I might even calm down a bit for some time. Since at some point he will start to adjust to you as well and maybe even start doing loose call-downs. But of course it's still doable.

      As played
      Postflop: The problem is that you only have 82 hands on him and can't even expect having a lot of fold equity on river. Obviously it's a perfect card for us to CBet again but do even we have a lot of strong hands to represent? Only KQ. All the other hands most likely we wouldn't even bet it on river anymore, since there is not much value for us. We practically turning our hand into bluff with sets/2pairs.

      Therefore I might even consider to Check it on turn if I see him rather being passive player or either if he is even some kind of floater/aggressive player then 2nd barrel but I wouldn't do with such a huge bet. ~$3,50 should work perfectly fine and then Check/Fold the river most likely while don't have that much information on him.

      Best regards.