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[NL2-NL10] KQo NL6 SH

    • muel294
      muel294
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2009 Posts: 1,225
      Sorry to batter your heads with the incessant posting. Will try to do in a max of sets of 5 to save you headaches :s_biggrin:

      Villain = 66/0/2/33/35hands only a few hands to go on but seems fairly LP

      Up until the turn it is pretty straightforward - valuetown

      Turn: I would only expect him to donk TP+FD, QTo+ ,


      Board: 9:heart: 4:diamond: Q:spade:  8:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      BU     33.31%  29.94%   3.37% { KsQc }
      SB     66.69%  63.32%   3.37% { AA, KdKh, KdKc, KhKc, QdQh, 9d9s, 9d9c, 9s9c, 4h4s, 4h4c, 4s4c, JTs, AdQd, AhQh, KdQd, KhQh, QdJd, QhJh, QdTd, QhTh, Qd9d, Qh8h, Qd7d, Qd6d, Qd5d, Qh4h, Qd3d, Qd2d, JTo, AdQh, AhQd, AsQd, AsQh, AcQd, AcQh, KdQh, KhQd, KcQd, KcQh, QdJh, QdJs, QdJc, QhJd, QhJs, QhJc, QdTh, QdTs, QdTc, QhTd, QhTs, QhTc, Qd8h, Qd8s, Qd8c, Qh8s, Qh8c, Qd6h, Qd6s, Qd6c, Qh6d, Qh6s, Qh6c, Qd4h, Qd4s, Qd4c, Qh4s, Qh4c }


      Options:
      :spade: Fold: I could just fold since I dont have enough info to know whether he is semi bluffing the turn and there are only a few hands I beat vs a seemingly passive opponent.

      :spade: Call: Getting 3:1 and I still have some equity vs TP hands and draws that I beat. If the river completes draws then I was just planning to check/fold.

      :spade: Raise/fold: I didnt really see this as an option. It's hard to think this type of opponent would ever calla raise with worse and its just too spewy.

      River: I would see him shoving something like QTo+ 2pr+, QQ+ 99/44


      Board: 9:heart: 4:diamond: Q:spade:  8:diamond:  2:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      BU     24.68%  20.78%   3.90% { KsQc }
      SB     75.32%  71.43%   3.90% { AA, KdKh, KdKc, KhKc, QdQh, 9d9s, 9d9c, 9s9c, 4h4s, 4h4c, 4s4c, Q2s, JTs, AdQd, AhQh, KdQd, KhQh, QdJd, QhJh, QdTd, QhTh, Qd9d, Qh8h, Qh4h, JTo, AdQh, AhQd, AsQd, AsQh, AcQd, AcQh, KdQh, KhQd, KcQd, KcQh, QdJh, QdJs, QdJc, QhJd, QhJs, QhJc, QdTh, QdTs, QdTc, QhTd, QhTs, QhTc, Qd8h, Qd8s, Qd8c, Qh8s, Qh8c, Qd4h, Qd4s, Qd4c, Qh4s, Qh4c }


      I still have 24% vs this range and the required equity to call is:

      E* = 1.35/(1.35+5.23) = 1.35/6.58 = 0.205 *100 = 20.5 = ~21%

      So a call here should be barely profitable with the range I have given him.

      So what should I be doing turn and river here?

      Pacific Poker - $0.06 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      CO: $6.00
      Hero (BTN): $16.28
      SB: $3.14
      BB: $20.27
      UTG: $6.24

      SB posts SB $0.03, BB posts BB $0.06

      Pre Flop: ($0.09) Hero has K:spade: Q:club:

      UTG calls $0.06, fold, Hero raises to $0.24, SB calls $0.21, fold, UTG calls $0.18

      Flop: ($0.78, 3 players) 9:heart: 4:diamond: Q:spade:
      SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $0.58, SB calls $0.58, fold

      Turn: ($1.94, 2 players) 8:diamond:
      SB bets $0.97, Hero calls $0.97

      River: ($3.88, 2 players) 2:club:
      SB bets $1.35, Hero calls $1.35

      Hero shows K:spade: Q:club: (One Pair, Queens) (Pre 69%, Flop 80%, Turn 73%)
      SB shows K:diamond: T:diamond: (High Card, King) (Pre 31%, Flop 20%, Turn 27%)
      Hero wins $6.26
  • 3 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      against 66/0 who has very wide range with 50bb I´d like to keep things simple.
      You have there tp with good kicker, his turn leading range is wider than two pair+ (most of the times one pair hands or draws) and I would not fold my hand to any river card getting river these odds, so I´d personally would shove over his turn lead expecting to get called worse hands

      You should have very good reason to fold tp hands these situations against loose players. If you´re beat you would double him up, but more often imo you stack his weaker hand.
    • muel294
      muel294
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2009 Posts: 1,225
      and I would not fold my hand to any river card getting river these odds, so I´d personally would shove over his turn lead expecting to get called worse hand


      :s_biggrin: Think this is where I am missing value. Since weaker top pairs and draws, tp+FD comprise the majority of his range that I beat I should be maxing value against these hands when he does have them.

      Obv he sometimes shows up with better but we just gotta roll with that.

      Think I am over estimating my opponents or just complicating things too much?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello muel294,

      Take a look at his stack. :) You are pretty much committed anyways on river, just ship the turn and might even protect the hand if you planning to Call anyways.

      Best regards.